Get all your news in one place.

100’s of premium titles.
One app.

Start reading

Get all your news in one place.

100’s of premium titles. One news app.

Start reading

Sports Illustrated

Sport

Kevin Sweeney

Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Oklahoma Streaking to Top of March Madness Bubble

Oklahoma Auburn Basketball March madness (Topic) UCF Missouri (Organization) NC State SEC New Mexico Texas AM

Welcome to championship week! It’s perhaps the busiest week of the year in college basketball, an all-out race to lock in spots in the NCAA tournament with Selection Sunday just days away and the process of building the bracket slowly but surely beginning. Throughout the week, Sports Illustrated will have daily and in some cases even more frequent updates with all the latest in projecting the field of 68. Here’s a look at where things stand entering Thursday.

Previous Bracket Watches: Jan. 21 | Feb. 3 | Feb. 10 | Feb. 17 | Feb. 24 | March 3 | March 6 | March 10 | March 11

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

NC State
UCF
Missouri
Santa Clara

Last Four In

VCU
Auburn
SMU
Texas

First Four Out

New Mexico
Virginia Tech
Indiana
Oklahoma

Next Four Out

San Diego State
Seton Hall
Cincinnati
Stanford

It was another day of carnage for bubble teams, with more teams making the case for exclusion than inclusion. Indiana was hapless against Northwestern to likely eliminate it from serious contention, while Cincinnati choked late against UCF to end whatever was left of its at-large case. SMU and Texas could very well have been out of the field after they took losses (Texas’s defeat, in particular, to a rough Ole Miss squad was bad), but stay in for now.

All of these bubble losses also have a major side effect. Much of the bubble is no longer in action entering the weekend. Of our eight teams in the Last Four In and First Four Out, just four are still playing, and others could get bounced Thursday. Sitting idly at home while the bubble shifts around you is never a comfortable feeling, but it’s one many are set to experience.

Thursday’s Bubble Games to Monitor

NC State vs. Virginia, noon ET
Missouri vs. Kentucky, 12:30 p.m. ET
Seton Hall vs. Creighton, 2:30 p.m. ET
UCF vs. Arizona, 3 p.m. ET
Auburn vs. Tennessee, 3 p.m. ET
San Diego State vs. Colorado State, 9 p.m. ET
Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M, 9:30 p.m. ET
New Mexico vs. San José State, 11:30 p.m. ET

By far the most critical bubble game of the day comes in Nashville, where Auburn gets an absolutely massive opportunity to boost its résumé further with a win over Tennessee. Would a win there be enough for a Tigers team that would eventually have a 16th loss to sneak in? That all depends on how many additional at-large teams enter the pool down the stretch, but it’d be a major step in the right direction. Auburn at 17–16 with a loss would have a tough case, though no one else on the bubble is doing much to earn its spot.

The other critical SEC tournament game is Oklahoma taking on Texas A&M. There isn’t a hotter bubble team right now than the Sooners, who continued their momentum with a win over South Carolina. A win over the Aggies might not be enough on its own, but with the other bubble carnage things could improve quickly for Oklahoma.

Also in the must-win category are a pair of Mountain West teams: San Diego State and New Mexico. The cleanest path for both is to win the conference tournament, but losing in the quarterfinals would be fatal.

NC State, Missouri and UCF are all a handful of spots clear of the cut line as things presently stand, so losses (especially Quad 1 defeats, as all three of their opponents would be) wouldn’t knock them out for now. Continuing to win to attempt to avoid the First Four and not sweat things out if bid stealers reign supreme this month would certainly help matters, though.

Projected Field

Bold teams have clinched their automatic bid.
* — Projected automatic qualifiers.

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 UMBC*/Florida A&M*
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Idaho

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Howard*/Lehigh
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 South Florida*
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Sam Houston State*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 SMU/Texas
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Missouri
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Furman

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Utah State* vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 St. John’s* vs. No. 12 McNeese State
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 VCU/Auburn
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Saint Louis*
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Siena

South Region

No. 1 Florida* vs. No. 16 Queens
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Ohio State
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Santa Clara
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Bracket Notes

This was another day where the vast majority of the movement came due to automatic qualifier changes. Liberty looked like a potential No. 12 seed out of Conference USA but lost to Missouri State, leaving Sam Houston State as the league’s projected champion sliding down to the No. 13 line. The No. 12 seed replacing them is McNeese State, which dominated Stephen F. Austin in the Southland title game to lock up the league’s automatic berth.

Thursday is when the vast majority of the bracket starts its conference tournament journeys. We could have a bit more movement in the coming days as those teams get into action, though it’s important to remember that with 30-plus data points already, we shouldn’t overreact much to individual results. That’s especially true as we get later in the week and the committee begins the bracketing process. Historically, moving teams in the projected bracket substantially in the final few days rarely is reflected in the committee’s end product.