Idiosyncrasy and vicissitude stamp Donald Trump as an exceptional president. Right from the time he imposed his tariff policy to the start, progress and possible end of the US war on Iran, his words have driven markets in all directions, though in a predictable manner. He has been the biggest market mover in recent times. But has there been any method to this from the markets' PoV?
The answer is yes. Let's go back to the tariffs imposed in April 2025. Game theory would have suggested that all other countries, at least the big ones, should have got together to announce similar tariffs to force some amount of backtracking. But the EU, Britain and Japan all went to the US and signed deals under which they had to open more of their markets besides promising to make more investments in the US. It was a win for the US, as the base tariff rate was 10%, up from an average of 3-4% earlier.
