As they fail on every front, the Tories play the best card they have in their hand: managing expectations. Take this week’s three byelections: every Tory MP you meet says, with a glum face, it’s a wipeout, game over. So if Labour wins Selby and Ainsty, that’s priced in, move on. But if Labour fails to overturn a 20,000 Tory majority, watch the narrative turn to “Starmer’s weakness”.
Time for some perspective. Even the prospect of winning a rock-solid Tory seat should remind doubters of what has been an epic climb by Labour from the despair of its 2019 near-death experience. Labour’s leader had a strategy mapped out from day one, and nothing has distracted him from it: two years to fix the party, ruthlessly expunging any who damage it; a set of five cast-iron missions; and fiscal discipline, avoiding all spending traps ahead of the manifesto. And the result is an astounding 20-point lead. Are Labour people satisfied? Of course not. We see glum faces among the left-leaning commentators, who say Labour will only win as the result of the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss catastrophes. They want to know a Labour government will be transformational, exhilarating, brave, inspired: instead they complain of extreme caution and affronts to Labour values.
