Asylum approval rates in the U.S. are at their lowest in years, with Latin American immigrants being hit the hardest by the decline. The trend follows tough restrictions during the Biden administration this year and the anticipated hardline stance on immigration by President-elect Trump.
The latest figures, from October, show asylum grant rates plummeting to just 35.8%, the lowest since May 2021, when the U.S. was transitioning out of COVID-19 restrictions, according to data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University. This marks a sharp contrast to earlier periods, such as May 2022 and September 2023, when asylum approvals peaked at over 50%.
A key factor driving this decline is the acceleration of asylum hearings, largely due to the use of a "rocket docket" system. This approach, aimed at clearing massive backlogs in immigration cases, has resulted in quicker hearings, but often to the detriment of asylum seekers from Central and South America. These immigrants, many of whom face complex cases rooted in violence, poverty, and political instability, require more time to present their claims than those from regions like Eastern Europe and Asia.
Mexico had the lowest rate of asylum grants (16.6%) for any nationality with at least 2,000 decisions: of the 4,950 asylum decisions involving Mexicans, 821 people were granted asylum. There were three other countries with grant rates of less than 20 percent, all of them from Latin America: Colombia (19.3%), Ecuador (19.7%), and Brazil (19.7%). Peru was only slightly higher with 20.6 percent granted asylum.
Asylum seekers from Russia, China, and other Eastern European and Asian nations have seen much higher approval rates. Russian nationals, for example, had an 85.4% asylum grant rate in fiscal year 2024, the highest of any nationality with over 2,000 decisions. In that matter, the top ranked, after Russia, were: China (76.6%), India (65.5%), Venezuela (64.5%), Cuba (51.6%), and Nicaragua (43.7%).
Regarding Venezuelans and Cubans, the higher rates are likely linked to the political persecution these groups face in socialist regimes. However, asylum seekers from other Latin American countries, such as Honduras, have seen much lower success rates (29.1% out of 6,201 decisions).
About 1.6 million of the 3.7 million cases in the immigration system's backlog involve asylum seekers. The backlog of asylum cases remains a significant challenge, with U.S. immigration courts closing 900,000 cases from October 2023 to September 2024, a record number, as reported by Axios.
Despite efforts to address these delays, the system remains overwhelmed, with many applicants waiting years for a decision.
Looking ahead, immigration reform is expected to be a key topic in Congress next year, with potential changes to asylum regulations and funding for more immigration judges. However, Trump's plans for mass deportations could exacerbate the backlog, making it harder for asylum seekers to have their cases heard in a timely manner.
That's why the nation's 734 immigration judges are seeking to reinstate their union rights to address growing concerns over an anticipated surge in cases. The judges' appeal aims to restore the union representation they lost in 2020, in order to have a voice in their workplace in a context of an overwhelming flood of cases
The potential mass deportations, which immigration experts estimate could cost between $150 billion and $350 billion, are central to Trump's immigration platform. Trump hinted at declaring a national emergency and potentially using local law enforcement, the military, and federal agencies to carry out deportation efforts.
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