The Labour Party is on course to win a large 56-seat majority at the next General Election, according to a new poll released today.
As current voting intention stands, Labour leader Keir Starmer will win the keys to No 10 with a 12-point lead over the Tories if such a result plays out at the election set to be held in 2024, the MRP model by Savanta ComRes for LabourList shows.
The news will provide a huge boost to Starmer and his party as they hold their annual conference in Liverpool. The event kicked off today and the leader's keynote speech will take place on Tuesday.
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The poll shows that if voters were to follow their current intentions at the next election in 2024, Labour would regain a large number of 'Red Wall' seats across the north of the country. It was the loss of these seats that powered Boris Johnson to victory at the 2019 election.
New Prime Minister Liz Truss, who was elected by only around 160,000 Tory members, has ruled out a snap election. Today Birmingham MP and Labour's National Campaign Co-ordinator Shabhana Mahmood became the latest senior Labour MP to challenge the new PM to go to the polls.
She told delegates: “My hope is one year from now I will stand here and report to you how we won a general election.” Ms Mahmood said Labour is “back on its feet” after a “decade of defeat, decline and embarrassment” at the ballot box.
Savanta ComRes researchers noted Mr Starmer must be able to highlight the contrast between Labour's economic policies and those of Ms Truss's Government. Voters in 357 Tory constituencies said they trusted Labour more to manage policies related to the rising cost-of-living than the Conservatives, according to the research.
Mr Starmer leads Ms Truss in just 53 of the 357 current Conservative-held seats, with the MRP model indicating that Labour is the most likely winner in 52 of those at the next election. The model also shows Labour gaining more than 20pts on their 2019 result in a number of seats, most notably victories in Ashfield, and Eddisbury, which Labour didn't win even in 1997.
The headline MRP Voting Intention stands at Labour with 45%; Conservative 33%; Lib Dem 10%; Green 4% and Reform 3%.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes, said: “This MRP model highlights both the potential and precarious nature of Labour’s polling lead at the moment. Many traditional polls, and this MRP model, show Labour enjoying double-digit leads over the Conservative Party, but one percentage point either way could be the difference between a sizable Labour majority, a small Labour majority, or no majority at all."
He added: "He [Mr Starmer] has an opportunity now to really differentiate Labour from the economic policies of a Truss-led government, and if he can convince voters that it is Labour, rather than the Conservatives, that have the answers to tackle the multitude of issues the country faces, the poll lead Labour have enjoyed throughout 2022 may start to feel more secure than it currently does.”
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