Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez meet Saturday on the main card of UFC on ABC 6 from Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez UFC on ABC 6 preview
Originally booked as a welterweight fight, Gastelum vs. Rodriguez was moved to middleweight when Gastelum admitted to a tough weight cut during fight week and Rodriguez agreed to move up. … Gastelum (18-9 MMA, 12-9 UFC) is in need of a spark after losing by third-round submission to Sean Brady last December, which marked his sixth loss in his past eight bouts dating back to 2019. … Rodriguez (17-4 MMA, 7-3 UFC) also needs a victory to avoid a dreaded three-fight losing skid. He’s coming off back-to-back losses to Neil Magny in 2022 and Ian Machado Garry in May 2023.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez UFC on ABC 6 expert pick, prediction
Serving as the lone southpaw vs. southpaw fight on the card is a potential war between Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez.
#UFCSaudiArabia’s lone southpaw v. southpaw matchup is between Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez.
Gastelum is officially 3-1-1 against UFC-level SPs (W: Story, Hendricks, Curtis; L: Till; NC: Belfort), but that could easily read differently given his splits w/Curtis and Story pic.twitter.com/JexH3hiPeP
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 21, 2024
This fight was originally slated to take place at welterweight, but with Gastelum citing troubles with his weight cut, the bout has officially been moved to 185 pounds.
Despite this significantly favoring Gastelum on paper, I’m not sure I like this matchup for the former middleweight from a stylistic perspective.
Gastelum’s jab-cross continuums translate well to closed-stance matchups, which helps feed/fuel his leg kicks (that come at a much higher clip against SPs). Still, the stance pairing provides a potent 2-way street that sees Gastelum getting taxed by kicks/counters #UFCSaudiArabia pic.twitter.com/cbSwHcA4GI
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 21, 2024
Not only could Gastelum easily be 1-3-1 against UFC-level lefties if close calls opposite Rick Story and Chris Curtis go against him, but “The Ultimate Fighter” winner tends to somewhat follow his opposition in predictable patterns.
Should Gastelum get too complacent this weekend, then he could be in for a rude awakening in the form of Rodriguez counter punches.
Rodriguez, who is also an active southpaw jabber, does well at circling off his jab and drawing opposition into his power via his patent clubbing cross. Rodriguez also has underrated leg kicks that come out more against fellows southpaws. #UFCSaudiArabia #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/LgPDQMcmsY
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 21, 2024
I suspect this will play out close and competitively no matter which way it swings, so I’ll take a flier on the underdog Rodriguez to score a surprising club-and-sub in Round 2.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez UFC on ABC 6 odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the former interim middleweight title challenger, listing Gastelum (-230) and Rodriguez (+184) via FanDuel.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez UFC on ABC 6 start time, how to watch
As the featured bout on the main card, Gastelum and Rodriguez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 4:15 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ABC and streams on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ABC 6.
