Since users of the leading prediction market Polymarket have been able to wager on the outcomes of war, fears have been raised that those betting on bombs falling from the sky may be privy to non-public information about military strikes. There has been much reported about suspicions of insider trading on war, but who exactly is believed to be placing these bets has remained unclear.
In February, Israeli authorities charged two suspects with committing security offences, bribery and obstruction of justice, alleging they used classified information to bet on the timing of military operations on Polymarket.
