For some time I’ve believed that the presidential election of 2024 will be a defining crisis that pits the most likely Republican candidate, Donald Trump, against whomever the Democrats choose, whether President Joe Biden or someone else. The outcome of that contest will tell us a lot about what kind of country we are.
But the crisis has come two years early. Trump isn’t on the ballot, but virtually every race reflects the Trumpian context in which we live. To vote is to choose, and next Tuesday’s outcome will be a telling index on our nation’s identity. I hope that you will vote Democratic.
The audience for this column is somewhat limited. A significant fraction of Americans have already voted. And a larger proportion, whether they’ve voted or not, have already decided with a certainty beyond the capacity of this column to influence.
But if you haven’t voted, and you haven’t entirely made up your mind, please consider these four factors as you go to your polling station:
No. 1: It’s not the stupid economy.
Democrats got a boost when the Supreme Court decided Dobbs v. Jackson against the preferences of more than 60% of Americans. But whatever momentum the Democrats gained when the Court revoked that right has dissipated with the onset of bad economic news, especially inflation and higher gas prices. Voters tend to blame incumbents for their economic unhappiness.
But as you vote, it’s worth remembering that individuals — even presidents — have very little influence on gas prices, which are driven almost entirely by the global market. Gas prices are high all over the world, even in places where Biden is not president.
Republicans know this: They blamed Biden when gas prices went up this year, but gave him no credit when they came back down.
Inflation is similarly dependent on complicated external factors and, like gas prices, it’s high in other developed countries, as well. If you’re thinking of voting Republican based on inflation, note that Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, writing recently in The New York Times, says that Republicans don’t have a plan for fighting inflation and to the extent that they have an economic plan, at all, it would probably make things worse. Check it out.
No. 2: Trump actually lost the 2020 presidential election, but he and his accomplices mounted a systematic effort to overturn that election and to undermine confidence in future elections. If you’re uncertain about this but have an open mind, invest several hours in watching the final House Jan. 6 committee hearing, available on YouTube.
Virtually every Republican candidate must at least tacitly accept the great 2020 falsehood, and so must Republican voters.
No. 3: Democrats are not socialists. You might find a few semi-socialists on the far left of the party, but most Democrats merely want government participation in ensuring a decent standard of living and security for most citizens. Republicans want the same thing, only slightly less. The accusation “Socialism!” — put to disingenuous use for decades — is fabricated and employed purely for political purposes.
No. 4: Republican votes help reinforce a tendency toward political violence, which never runs very far beneath the surface of American culture. Trump encouraged this unfortunate trend with his tough-guy bravado, his divisiveness and his constant cultivation of grievance that can be remedied only by fighting to “take our country back.”
On Jan. 6, some of his followers took him seriously. There’s little question that if the Jan. 6 insurrectionists had encountered Vice President Mike Pence — they came within 40 feet! — or Speaker Nancy Pelosi at the capitol, they would have done them harm.
And last week one of Trump’s followers forced his way into Nancy Pelosi’s house, badly injuring her husband. If Speaker Pelosi had been home, there’s a real chance she could have been killed.
Of course, most Republicans don’t support this sort of violence. In fact, all normal citizens denounce political violence. The problem is that many Republicans — especially Trump — don’t repudiate it emphatically enough.
In America, the ultimate repudiation takes place at the ballot box. Please consider that on Election Day.
