Japan raises probability of megaquake to over 80% in next 30 years

People light bamboo candles at a memorial altar for the victims of the Great Hanshin Earthquake during a memorial ceremony on 17 January 2025 in Kobe, Japan. People gathered early in the morning to pay their respects and light bamboo lanterns in the park for more 6,000 people who lost their lives in the 7.3 magnitude Hanshin Earthquake - (Getty Images)

The probability of a “megaquake” happening in Japan within the next 30 years has risen to over 80 per cent, the government’s earthquake investigation panel found.

A megaquake is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8 or greater, bringing the potential for exceptional destructive power and a strong likelihood of generating a tsunami.