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Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy
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Anchal Vohra, Bilal Y. Saab

Iranians Are Trapped in a Sunni-Shiite Détente

People gesture and wave former flags of Iran as they protest outside the Antwerp criminal court during the trial of four persons including an Iranian diplomate and Belgian-Iranian couple in Antwerp, on February 4, 2021. DIRK WAEM/BELGA/AFP via Getty Images

Iran and Turkey have historically competed on sectarian lines for influence in the Middle East and more recently backed opposing sides in the Syrian conflict. During the last few years, however, they have turned into tactical allies and learned to work around their political differences to limit U.S. intervention in a region that both Iran and Turkey see as their own playground. The first signs of detente appeared in December 2016 when Tehran and Ankara, along with Moscow, signed the Astana agreement, a deal to try to resolve the Syrian conflict among themselves.

Some hailed that agreement, and the resulting bilateral thaw between Iran and Turkey, as a sign of maturity and an omen for the region. But for the Iranian dissidents who had traditionally sought refuge in Turkey, the rapprochement posed a threat. As the Turkish-Iranian relationship has improved, abductions, deportations, and assassinations of prominent Iranian human rights activists in Turkey have increased.

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