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The Economic Times
The Economic Times

India bonds wobble as supply, RBI cash-drain risks loom

Demand for Indian ​government bonds faltered on Thursday as ​looming supply and concerns the Reserve Bank of India ​could drain more liquidity ahead of possible policy tightening weighed.

Weak demand also hit a Treasury bill auction, pushing yields on 182-day and 364-day bills to three-month highs.

The ‌yield on ⁠the benchmark ⁠6.94% 2036 bond climbed 4 basis points to 6.8901% from Tuesday's close. The ​debt market was shut on Wednesday for a local holiday.

Traders expect the RBI to ​mop up excess banking-system liquidity through more durable instruments as it positions for tighter policy due to mounting inflation risks.

The banking system's liquidity surplus ​has averaged more than 3.4 trillion rupees ($36 billion) ⁠in August ‌and is expected to surpass 5 trillion rupees ​in September.

Minutes ​of the RBI's August meeting showed policymakers were willing to ⁠raise rates should inflation risks materialise and broaden. The ​next decision is due on October 7, with ​only one inflation print before then.

"The 10-year yield is expected to stay within the 6.85%-6.95% range, as markets are currently pricing in 25-50 basis points of rate hikes over the next 12 months," said Abhishek KS, fixed income fund manager at Abakkus Mutual Fund.

Also testing sentiment ‌is New Delhi's 340-billion-rupee sale of the benchmark note on Friday, alongside unfavourable global cues.

A report on Wednesday showed ​U.S. July inflation ​was marginally firmer than ⁠economists had forecast, raising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Investors now look forward to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at this week's Jackson ​Hole symposium for signals on the policy outlook.

RATES

India's overnight indexed swap rates advanced as sentiment deteriorated.

The one-year swap rate rose 6.75 bps to 5.9250%, while the two-year rate surged 6.75 bps to 6.11%. The five-year rate jumped 8.75 bps to 6.44%.

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