If you’re hosting Thanksgiving dinner this year, your grocery bill may be similar to last year’s. It might even be cheaper.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index, grocery prices have increased 1.1% from October 2023 to October 2024, while overall prices have increased 2.6% over the same time period.
But the prices of Thanksgiving staples, however, have decreased in that same time: Turkey and potatoes cost less than a year ago. Sauces and gravies, and pies, cost about the same. Biscuits, rolls, and muffins, meanwhile, cost 2.3% more than.
Grocery prices have been increasing year over year since July 2017, from as little as 0.1% in May and October 2018 to as much as 13.5% in August 2022.
Rising prices is a sign of a healthy economy, according to the Federal Reserve, which aims to maintain modest inflation over time. But in the grocery aisles, a deal is always good news.
Here is how changing grocery prices have affected some select Thanksgiving favorites.
Gobble up the turkey
An avian flu outbreak that started in 2022 is partly to blame for driving up chicken prices, but prices for turkey — the star of the show — have not been affected the same way.
Turkey prices were 3.9% cheaper in October 2024 than October 2023. This is the first time since 2018 that the price dropped in October compared to the previous year.
This century, the year with the highest increase in turkey prices was 2022, when it rose nearly 17%.
Load up on mashed potatoes
Potato prices are another anomaly in the overall trend of increasing grocery prices; the cost of potatoes has dropped 1.5% since 2023. These prices have declined two years in a row and are 4.8% cheaper than in 2022.
Some prices didn’t change at all
Sauce and gravy prices are unchanged this year. This is the first time since 2017 that prices did not increase compared to the previous October.
Don’t feel like baking a pie from scratch? Head to the frozen aisle and take your pick of pie — pre-made pies will cost around the same as they did last year. After rising for four years, the cost of pies, frozen tarts, and turnovers is about the same this year as last year, rising by the comparatively small 0.1%.
Pies are 30% more expensive in 2024 than they were before the pandemic in 2019.
BYO (bake your own) biscuits, rolls, and muffins
You may want to mix up your own batch of baked goods instead of buying them fresh from the bakery — fresh store-bought biscuits, rolls, and muffins prices increased the most of selected Thanksgiving staples, increasing 2.3% since 2023. Prices for these bakery items have been increasing annually for eight years.
What does the data miss?
Although Thanksgiving is in November, the most recent available data for food prices is October 2024. Data for November 2024 will be released in December 2024.
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