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Fortune
Fortune
François Candelon, David Zuluaga Martínez, Etienne Cavin

How many jobs will AI eliminate? Nobody really knows, and here’s why

(Credit: Westend61—Getty Images)

The age of artificial intelligence has been full of predictions of mass technology-driven unemployment. A 2013 report by the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute posited that nearly half of U.S. employment at the time was “potentially automatable” over the next “decade or two.” A decade later, however, there were 17 million more jobs in the U.S.

The advance of generative AI has unsurprisingly breathed new life into such alarmist projections. The IMFrecently declared 40% of jobs are “exposed” globally; Goldman Sachs put 300 million jobs at risk of being “lost or degraded”” and the Pew Research Center estimated that 19% of U.S. workers have jobs in the “most exposed to AI” category.

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