Attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia are putting Turkey's new defence pact with the kingdom to its first major test – forcing Ankara to weigh support for its ally against the risk of being drawn deeper into the conflict.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 7 August, committing themselves to the principle that an attack on one is an attack on all.
The three countries' military chiefs met in the Saudi capital on Friday, a day after the Iran-backed Houthis launched their latest barrage of missiles targeting Riyadh and Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu.
In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has reported intercepting numerous Houthi drone and ballistic missile attacks from neighbouring Yemen.
The military chiefs discussed intelligence sharing, military coordination and integrating their capabilities, Saudi and Pakistani statements said. Turkey's defence ministry did not comment on the meeting.
Saudi expectations
Turkey has so far stopped short of committing itself to military action.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that Ankara was looking into providing what he called “technical support”, without elaborating on what that could involve.
Saudi Arabia could look to Turkey for air defence systems, counter-drone technology, radars and maritime security, given the expertise and capabilities of the Turkish military and defence industry, said Amed Khuzaie of the Washington-based think tank N7 Foundation.
“The Mecca Agreement pact will prove its vitality and importance only if it's deemed to be functional,” Khuzaie told RFI.
The Riyadh meeting followed talks in New York on Thursday involving the Saudi and Turkish foreign ministers and Pakistan's deputy prime minister and foreign minister on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
Turkish media citing foreign ministry sources said the meeting focused on ongoing “technical negotiations”.
But providing support to Saudi Arabia could expose Turkey to retaliation from the Houthis.
“By God, if Turkey and Pakistan become involved, we will strike them with an iron fist,” Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior member of the Houthis, said in an Iraqi television interview.
Risk of retaliation
The warning should be taken seriously given the Houthis' military presence around the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical waterway linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, explained Amed Nagi, a Yemen expert at the International Crisis Group.
“[The Houthis] targeted US and UK shipping in the Red Sea,” Nagi said. “They could do the same beyond [that] to the Gulf of Aden, because we know Turkey is very active in the Horn of Africa.
"So I think these are the areas that the Houthis will think about if there is any sort of retaliation against Turkey.”
In 2024, the Houthis attacked US military and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, damaging the Gibraltar Eagle bulk carrier with a cruise missile and sinking the British-linked cargo ship MV Rubymar.
Saudi Arabia could also look to Israel for support if its new partners do not provide what it needs, Khuzaie said.
“Who has better intelligence in the region than the Israelis today?” he said. “Diversifying resources, if one fails you, you have another side that could assist.”
The risks for Ankara go beyond possible Houthi retaliation. Turkey must also manage its relationship with Iran, which backs the Yemeni group.
“It is not in the interest of Turkey to have a direct confrontation with any actor in the region, and the Houthis have become a proxy of Iran; Turkey doesn't want a confrontation with Iran directly," said Bilgehan Alagoz, an international relations professor at Istanbul's Marmara University.
"Turkey is trying to solve the issue from a diplomatic point of view.”
In a joint statement last week, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt said that dialogue and diplomacy were the only sustainable way to resolve the region's conflicts, while affirming Saudi Arabia's right to defend itself under international law.
Fidan met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in New York on Friday.
Fidan later said they discussed Iran's negotiations with the United States and conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but that diplomatic efforts had yet to produce a breakthrough.
Iran balancing act
The diplomatic efforts come as Turkey's relationship with Iran faces other strains.
Turkey-based international relations analyst Soli Ozel said Ankara has for decades walked a “fine line” between rivalry and cooperation with Tehran while balancing its relationships with Iran and Western allies, particularly the United States.
Turkey's banking regulator recently revoked the operating licence of Iran's Bank Mellat branch in Istanbul, although the official notice did not say the move was intended to enforce US sanctions.
The US Treasury also said Ankara had agreed after talks with Washington to stop flights by Iran's Mahan Air as part of efforts to comply with US measures against Tehran. Three Turkish airlines also suspended flights to Iran.
Turkish authorities have also repeatedly accused Iran of hostile operations inside the country, including assassinations and abductions of Iranian dissidents.
In January, security forces arrested six people suspected of spying for Iran and gathering information about the Incirlik air base, which is used by US forces.
Becoming involved in the conflict against the Houthis could upset Ankara's already delicate relationship with Tehran, Ozel told RFI.
“The Iranians who actually have a lot of [intelligence] capabilities in Turkey, we’ve seen that before, then you find yourself in a hot or cold war,” he said.
