Basketball and hockey are around the corner. Baseball and soccer are steaming toward their playoffs. College football got a jump start. No matter. All curtsy and step aside now, please. King Sport is back!
Thursday night begins the NFL’s 103rd season, the 57th for the Dolphins, the 32nd (!) for our NFL picks in the Miami Herald, and the 21st for prime-time Thursday kickoffs. (And I believe Tom Brady has been around for all of them). Of all high-school players, only 7.8% play college football. Of all college players, only 0.4% reach the NFL. This is hard, folks.
So is this: Predicting games. I’m trying to improve upon a solid — but not great — 2021 season for my picks: a .635 win percentage straight up and .519 against the point spread. To those who’ve followed our picks for years, welcome back. Myself and the Upset Bird thank you (“Aawwk!”). To newbies, welcome aboard. We take our picks seriously but have fun doing ‘em. OK, enough preamble. Pick time!
NFL WEEK 1
GREG COTE’S THURSDAY PICK
BILLS (0-0) at RAMS (0-0)
Line: BUF by 2.
Cote’s pick: LAR, 28-24. Upset!
TV: 8:20p.m. Thursday, NBC.
NFL doesn’t do soft openings; it hits you upside the head. So we kick off with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams hosting this season’s Super Bowl favorite Bills. L.A. is chasing the league’s first back-to-back titles since New England in 2003-04. Buffalo is the betting favorite going in for the first time since 1991. Are Rams up to a repeat? Are Bills all that and good enough to make home dogs of the reigning champs? We begin to find out. A QB mistake could tip this result. Matthew Stafford’s elbow is fine (says coach Sean McVay) but he threw 17 picks last year, tied for most in the league, and Buffalo can pressure the pocket. Josh Allen threw 15 INTs, a mistake-proneness accentuated here by the charge of one Aaron Donald. Bills and Allen feasted in the red zone last season but Rams return a pass-D that led NFL in lowest opponent passer rating in the red zone. Bottom line? You’re giving me the reigning champs, at home, in prime time, and points? Yes, please. I’ll take Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp, Mr. Donald and the home edge against an overhyped, paper-favorite Bills team still with much to prove.
[Note: Betting line courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of early afternoon Wednesday.]
