The missiles may eventually stop for good. Oil tankers will once again pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But even if the tenuous two-week ceasefire gives way to a lasting end to hostilities, the world economy that emerges from the Iran war will bear little resemblance to the one that entered it.
That is the conclusion of investors, economists, and strategists around the world. The common thread isn’t fear of a specific catastrophe. It’s something more unsettling: the sense that a series of permanent structural shifts—in supply chains, in geopolitical alliances, in the balance of economic power—have been accelerated by a war that nobody in power fully planned for.
