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Fortune
Fortune
Will Daniel

Goldman Sachs thinks the economy will actually pull off a soft landing—but adds the S&P will stay flat for a whole year

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on January 17, 2023 in New York City. (Credit: Michael M. Santiago—Getty Images)

Doomsday forecasts for the U.S. economy have flooded in over the past year amid the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation. Predictions of an impending “severe recession” from the likes of Elon Musk, or even “another variant of a Great Depression” from New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, have led most Americans to believe a downturn is inevitable this year. 

A number of U.S. bank CEOs, including JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon and Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, confirmed their fears about the economy’s future last week as well, arguing in earnings reports that a “mild recession” is likely on the way. But Goldman Sachs is still forecasting a “soft landing” in the U.S.—whereby inflation is tamed without sparking a recession. Even with the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes raising borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, Goldman believes the economy is strong enough to continue growing.

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