More likely than not, the U.S. economy will enter a recession this year, Bankrate’s Fourth-Quarter Economic Indicator poll found.
The U.S. economy has a 64% chance of contracting in 2023, according to the average forecast among economists. Just two experts (or 15%) said the financial system could avoid a downturn, putting the odds of a recession at 40%. Meanwhile, one economist arrived at 100% odds — signifying he was absolutely certain of a recession.
Recession odds for 2023 have jumped sharply as the Fed’s massive tightening campaign has unfolded. The fourth-quarter forecast is up from just 33% in the first-quarter poll and 52% in the second quarter.
