The November elections are a little less than two months away. But that is not stopping Florida's Republican Party from celebrating their wins in what they dubbed a "victory dinner" this past Saturday. But is it too early to celebrate? Recent polls may say so.
The fundraising gala was held at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Hollywood, and it featured household GOP names such as Gov. Ron DeSantis, Attorney general Ashley Moody, Sen. Rick Scott, Donald Trump Jr.'s fiance Kimberly Guilfoyle and more.
"Victory is in our sites. America's future is in our hands. America's destiny is in our control and America's prosperity is in our hearts and souls," said Guilfoyle, who is also a top surrogate for the Trump campaign.
Scott, however, decided to communicate a harsher rhetoric, discussing the Biden-Harris administration's record on Israel-Hamas relations, transgender athletes in women's sports, and illegal immigration—citing a recent uproar over an alleged Venezuelan gang of migrants allegedly overtaking a Colorado apartment complex—, as well as taking a jab at Vice Presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz.
"[Harris] shows us what she is when she picked Walz," Scott said, slamming her running mate as a "socialist" who governed Minneapolis when parts of the city burned during the 2020 George Floyd protests. "It's the most radical ticket."
Likewise, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination and is now seeking to boost Trump's bid, touted Florida as a "layup for Republican candidates," arguing that the GOP's nearly 1-million-person voter registration advantage over Democrats made the state an easy win for his party, according to the Miami Herald.
"Presidential elections— we'd be on a razor's edge about the state of Florida," DeSantis said. "Well now, we've got over a million more registered Republicans than Democrats.
Republicans in Florida have reason to be confident. The Sunshine state, once the ultimate battleground state where Republicans and Democrats fought tooth-and-nail for public offices, has comfortably edged to the right in recent years.
Nevertheless, polls are showing mixed results in races up and down the ballot.
For instance, in Scott's own campaign for the Senate, his once-wide polling lead is dramatically decreasing. A new Emerson College poll conducted from Sept. 3-5 shows the Republican candidate holding only a one percentage point lead over his challenger, former Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Likewise, a polling average from The Hill in another down-ballot race for the U.S. House in Florida's 13 Congressional District between GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and challenger Whitney Fox, shows the Republican nominee leading by only one percentage point, a virtual tie.
In the Presidential race, however, Republicans are the most comfortable, as former President Trump holds a 4.4% lead over Vice President Harris, at 48.5% to 44.1%, according to a polling average from FiveThirtyEight.
But perhaps one of Republicans' less-assured victories ahead of November remains on one particular issue— reproductive rights.
Floridians will cast their ballots on Amendment 4, which would provide a constitutional right to an abortion in the state before fetal viability, in the upcoming elections. This is one of the GOP's biggest vulnerabilities.
A majority of Florida voters, 55%, say they will vote "yes" on the Amendment, while another 26% saying they plan to vote "no", and a 20% saying they were "unsure," according to a new poll by The Hill and Emerson College.
National Democrats have increased their presence in Florida, hoping to tie Republicans to the state's six-week abortion ban, with Vice President Harris's presidential campaign launching its "Reproductive Rights for All" bus tour last week in Palm Beach.
But the Amendment's support is not discouraging Florida's governor from showing his opposition, taking the "victory dinner" to call out Republican Congress members Bill Posey, Brian Mast, Laurel Less and Luna for not publicly stating they will vote "no" on Florida's proposed amendment.
"To me, that's untenable," he said at the dinner. He also listed off 16 Congressmen who have agreed to vote no and financially backed anti-Amendment 4 campaigns. Those he didn't name, he said, are the targets of his remarks. "To just sit here and let George Soros run amendments in our state and not be willing to stand up and say no, not on our watch? That's the least you can do as Republicans."
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