Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine will “grind” on throughout next year even though both sides are rapidly running out of ammunition and weapons, it is feared.
The two armies are now in a race against time as winter approaches to replenish ammo and weapons stocks amid fears Winter freezes will cause more battlefield casualties.
Western officials also believe Russian President Vladimir Putin ’s brutal mercenary unit The Wagner Group is fast becoming part of Moscow’s regular military.
Out of around 100,00 Russian troops currently fighting in Ukraine several thousand Wagner fighters - many of them ex-jailbirds- are on the frontline.
And the west believes Wagner’s brutal, filmed “sledgehammer execution” of 55 year-old deserter Yevgeny Nuzhin was a warning to other recruits.
Nuzhin changed sides as a defector and was then abducted and hammered to death by fighters working for Wagner, headed by Putin’s “chef” Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The Wagner leader recruited many of his fighters from Russia ’s jails in return for clemency, despite their crimes, such as murder, kidnapping and robbery.
It is believed Russia has just 120 Iskander missiles left and a mere month’s supply remaining of artillery shells available for the battlefield.
Russia is also increasingly relying upon Iranian made, explosives -tipped Kamikaze drones, most of which are being shot down by Ukrainian defence systems.
A Western official said: “Munitions supply is a big, limiting factor for both sides and that’s why we’ve seen the Russians going to great lengths to replenish.
“The Ukrainians are doing the same thing.
“We are still expecting to grind and it to be largely static, expecting neither side to win or lose and that extends all the way through 2023.
“If people are expecting the collapse of forces on either side we can’t see anything which would indicate that from now through to the end of the year.
“Neither side is in such a condition for their forces to collapse.”
Officials said the horrific sledgehammer execution is likely to be probed as part of the near 40,000 alleged war crimes committed by Russian forces and their proxies.
One said: “On the execution video - the use of a hammer as a tool is something which we’ve seen from Wagner before in the Syria conflict.
“It’s absolutely messaging, aimed at the various people who have been conscripted and from prisons and from elsewhere - and the choices they will make.
“It’s a brutalisation of war and I expect it’s an extra-judicial killing expected to feature in further investigations in due course.”
The official added that the “Wagner Group now appears to be becoming more a part of Russian forces.”
Even though fighting may slow down during the Winter freeze it may cause more deaths
One source said temperatures are plummeting form 13 degrees to freezing and added that this will cut short the time needed to get casualties to aid stations, called the “Golden Hour.”
The source said: “That impacts the golden hour - so we can expect more, more fatalities as a consequence of injuries on the battlefield.”
