To see whether Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) is closing the gap with competitor Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) in the GLP-1 market, investors need only look at patent-cliff timing and current market share. Eli Lilly commands a larger and growing market share and stands to keep exclusivity years longer than Novo. In this scenario, Novo has no option but to lose ground, which is why the long-term plan it laid out at its September Capital Markets Day failed to inspire investors.
Novo's pipeline includes more than five drugs with "multi-blockbuster" potential by 2030, more than $23 billion in pipeline sales by 2035, and manufacturing capacity to treat 10 times more obesity patients on oral GLP-1s. The question is whether it can turn that pipeline into sales, and the outlook is dim, relatively speaking.
