Election handicapper Nate Silver's prediction model is in the spotlight thanks to an election forecast that seems bullish on former President Donald Trump’s chances of victory, raising questions about how such models work.
Silver’s forecast has drawn significant criticism for giving Trump a better chance of winning than other forecasters. Last week, for instance, his forecast gave Trump a 64% chance of winning the Electoral College while giving Vice President Kamala Harris just a 35% chance of victory, even while the same forecast saw Harris as more likely to win the popular vote and his polling averages had her leading in enough swing states to take the election.
