India is on course for its driest monsoon in 17 years as a strengthening El Niño curbs rainfall, threatening crop yields and raising food-price risks.
Cumulative rainfall during the June to September monsoon season is 15% below the long-term average so far, according to the India Meteorological Department. If the deficit persists, it would be the weakest monsoon since 2009, when precipitation was 18% below normal. The weather office had forecast a 10% shortfall for this season back in May.
Conditions may become favorable for a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in the last week of September, said Christian Werner, managing director of Australia-based consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics. That could potentially bring much-needed rain to eastern and northeastern India, mitigating the deficit there, he added.
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Still, the storm is unlikely to materially change the national picture and Werner expects the seasonal deficit to hold between 13% and 16%.
