The dollar index (DXY00) fell to a 3.5-week low on Wednesday and finished down by -0.46% today. The dollar retreated on Wednesday with T-note yields after US June producer prices rose less than expected, a dovish factor for Fed policy. Also, the benign CPI report has reduced the chances of a Fed rate hike at the FOMC meeting later this month to 10% from 43% on Monday, further weighing on the dollar.
Losses in the dollar were limited amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East that are boosting crude oil prices after US forces launched airstrikes against Iran today for a fifth day. The higher crude prices raise inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, a supportive factor for the dollar. Also, the Jul Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions report rose more than expected, a positive factor for the dollar.
