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Rich Asplund

Dollar Erases Early Gains as Crude Prices Fall and Stocks Rally

Gold US Federal Reserve crude oil Oil ECB Pierre Wunsch Satsuki Katayama Inflation ECB Governing Council Iran

The dollar index (DXY00) fell from a 6-week high today and is down by -0.09%. The dollar gave up an early advance today and moved lower after crude oil prices fell by more than -2%, which lowered inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy, a negative for the dollar. Also, today's stock rally has reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar initially moved higher today on an increase in safe-haven demand after President Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war.

Swaps markets are discounting the odds at 7% for a 25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

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