The dollar index (DXY00) today is down -0.10%. The dollar is trading lower as today’s decline of more than -2% in WTI crude oil prices caused the 10-year T-note yield to fall -3.5 bp. Still, the dollar is seeing underlying support after today’s US CPI report pushed the market's odds of an FOMC rate hike next week up to 88% from 75% on Thursday.
Today’s Aug US CPI report of +0.4% m/m was in line with market expectations, but the core CPI report of +0.3% m/m was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.2% m/m. On a year-on-year basis, the Aug CPI report of +3.4% y/y was unchanged from July and was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the Aug core CPI report of +2.4% y/y eased slightly from July’s +2.5% and posted a new 5.5-year low, and was in line with market expectations.
