/Supermicro%20headquarters%20in%20San%20Jose%2C%20By%20JHVEPhoto.jpeg)
IT infrastructure firm Super Micro Computer (SMCI), commonly called Supermicro, is set to report its fourth-quarter results for fiscal 2026 on Aug. 11, after the market closes. Prior to that, the company’s preliminary results have boosted investor confidence in the stock. The company expects an adjusted gross margin of 15% to 17% due to favorable customer and product mix, which is quite a premium compared to the 8.2% - 8.4% it had projected in May.
Moreover, this is based on solid demand, as demand for servers laden with Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs has been increasing robustly. Revenue is expected to be at the low end of its $11 billion to $12.5 billion range, possibly due to shipments being delayed to later quarters. In this context, it might be noted that Supermicro’s backlog rose to a record level at the end of fiscal 2026, with over $60 billion in new orders received during Q4.
Hence, the possible revenue shortfall does not reflect demand; rather, it points towards an execution issue. In March, the company said co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw stepped down from its board after a federal indictment accused him of helping smuggle servers with Nvidia AI chips into China.
Meanwhile, the company faces huge demand driven by the growing need for AI compute.
About Super Micro Computer Stock
Super Micro Computer is an IT infrastructure company that builds high-performance servers, storage systems, and related management software for enterprise, cloud, AI, and edge computing customers. It also provides integrated solutions and support services that help businesses run data-intensive workloads more efficiently. Supermicro has a current market capitalization of $19.06 billion.
The company operates globally, with manufacturing and service centers across the United States, Taiwan, Europe, and Asia. Its headquarters is in San Jose, California, where it manages corporate and product operations. Supermicro focuses on energy-efficient, customizable systems designed to support fast-growing data center demand.
A plethora of factors have affected Supermicro’s stock over the past year, including federal indictments and probes, a massive $7 billion financing plan raising dilution fears, and investors questioning whether its growth can be sustained even though it faces tailwinds from AI demand. Over the past 52 weeks, Supermicro’s stock has dropped 45.58%, but it is up 8.27% year-to-date (YTD). The company’s shares had reached a 52-week low of $19.48 on March 23, but are up 62.7% from that level.
After Supermicro’s shares came down significantly from their highs, its valuation has also moderated a lot. On a forward-adjusted basis, its price-to-earnings (non-GAAP) ratio of 11.17 times is lower than the industry average of 24.34 times.
Super Micro Computer Reported Strong Q3 Growth
For the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (quarter ended March 31), Supermicro’s revenue more than doubled year-over-year (YOY) to $10.24 billion. The company’s non-GAAP gross margin inflated from 9.7% to 10.1%. Non-GAAP EPS climbed from $0.31 to $0.84 over the same period. Highlighting its new U.S. manufacturing facilities in Silicon Valley, Supermicro considers itself to be well-positioned to address the ballooning AI demand.
Wall Street analysts are robustly optimistic about Supermicro’s future earnings. For the upcoming fiscal year 2026 results, EPS is projected to surge 22.1% annually to $2.10, followed by a 41.4% growth to $2.97 in fiscal 2027. Analysts also expect the company’s EPS to grow 80.7% YOY to $0.56 for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
What Analysts Are Saying About Super Micro Computer’s Stock
Recently, Wall Street analysts have exhibited some differing views on Supermicro’s stock. Analysts at Mizuho maintained a “Neutral” rating on the stock but lowered the price target from $44 to $34. Reflecting on the company’s expected revenue shortfall, Mizuho analysts see this as a potential component and memory shortage issue, as well as a construction-delay headwind. While acknowledging higher orders, analysts also noted the intense competition the company faces.
Rosenblatt analysts, on the other hand, raised the price target on the stock from $40 to $45, while maintaining a “Buy” rating. Analysts at the firm see the pullback in Supermicro’s shares posing an attractive entry after the company raised capital. To maintain a bullish rating, Rosenblatt cited its order backlog and priority access to the AI supply chain, as well as strong demand for AI compute.
As Supermicro expects higher gross margin than previously projected and has recorded $60 billion in new orders, Barclays analyst Tim Long increased the price target on the stock from $34 to $38, but kept a “Hold” rating, as the company expects revenue at the lower end of its guidance range.
Wall Street analysts are taking a cautious stance on Supermicro’s stock now, with a consensus “Hold” rating overall. Of the 20 analysts rating the stock, three analysts gave a “Strong Buy” rating, two analysts suggested “Moderate Buy,” while 12 analysts are playing it safe with a “Hold” rating, one analyst suggested “Moderate Sell,” and two analysts gave a “Strong Sell” rating. The consensus price target of $36.19 represents a 14.2% upside from current levels. Moreover, the Street-high price target of $50 implies a 57.8% upside.
