After predicting the outcomes of multiple close elections with impressive precision, a leading data scientist is now projecting a landslide victory for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential race.
Thomas Miller, director of the data science program at Northwestern University, is known for his singularly accurate predictions of U.S. elections. Fortune reported that he not only correctly predicted the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election, but he also confidently called the Georgia senatorial races for the Democratic candidates, Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, despite both races advancing to an extremely tight run-off when none of the candidates were able to receive a majority vote.
In fact, Miller was able to predict that Ossof would win by exactly 1% even as all the polls showed the young politician heading for a sizable loss against GOP incumbent Sen. David Perdue.
His unique prediction model is based on increasingly popular election betting markets. According to Miller, polls are not accurate in demonstrating evolving voter perceptions of candidates because they take too long to publish, and are typically derived from much smaller sample sizes. On the other hand, betting markets like PredictIt update in real-time as people place bets on either candidate.
"Polls are a snapshot of the past," Miller said in an interview with Fortune. "The odds on betting sites are a map of the future."
Miller used his model to forecast a massive win for the Democratic presidential ticket come November. According to him, not only will Harris emerge victorious in the presidential election, but she is headed for a "drastic landslide" of 449 electoral college votes. (270 votes are needed to win the election.)
On his website, the Virtual Tout, Miller credits two key events in cementing his prediction: The presidential debate -- and Taylor Swift's endorsement.
"Both parties' election prospects changed dramatically on September 10, when we saw the combined effects of two critical events: the Trump-Harris presidential debate (with an estimated 67.1 million viewers) and Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris." He writes. "On that day, there was a rise of more than one hundred forecasted Democratic votes in the Electoral College."
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