The AI trade, at least for the time being, has come to an end. Many leaders have officially broken below major support and key moving averages, signaling a change in market momentum. Semiconductors, memory names, neoclouds, photonics, the groups that led the market for most of the year, have sold off hard over the past month. But one corner of technology has barely flinched: cybersecurity. And in a tape like this, that kind of relative strength is exactly what tends to precede leadership changes.
The numbers tell the story cleanly. The Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (NYSEARCA: HACK) is up 15.4% over the past 30 days and hit a fresh 12-month high in early July. Over that same 30-day stretch, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) fell almost 9%. The gap widens further when measured against their peaks. HACK sits less than 5% below its 52-week high, while SMH trades roughly 17% below its own, and many memory and semiconductor leaders sit 15% to 25% off their recent highs. It is worth noting that Bank of America just called long semiconductors the most crowded trade ever, while cybersecurity stocks actually rose on one of the market's ugliest sessions last week.
