When you're in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look now, and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look after the season.
As you get further into the season and the college football puzzle sorts itself out, the two instincts converge and the exercise becomes easier. The number of square pegs in round holes falls sharply. Some matchups hold steady week-over-week. When chaos strikes—as it did this week, much to the chagrin of Alabama, Texas A&M and others—you can handle it.
