Amid the chaos of the Trump administration’s final weeks, the U.S. Commerce Department made a little-noticed announcement that has the potential to derail China’s aviation industry. On Dec. 21, 2020, the department published a new Military End User (MEU) export list, which essentially prohibits technology exports to entities that “represent an unacceptable risk of use in or diversion to a ‘military end use’” in China and other countries. If left as is, the list will hinder U.S. trade with more than 100 Chinese and Russian companies and entities. And the list implies that China’s aviation industry in particular will need to restart its commercial aircraft development plans from scratch.
Suddenly, the elaborate technology transfers and international sourcing arrangements that China needs to make its own aircraft have become impossible—or at least extremely difficult. Currently, China’s aviation industry only works if foreign companies sell it the equipment needed to get its planes off the ground. Right now, when it comes to domestic manufacturers, it’s presenting Potemkin jets, a homegrown facade concealing an imported core.
