I know this won’t go down well given the obvious rivalries in my colourful playing history, but I reckon that Brighton go into their FA Cup semi-final this weekend as slight favourites.
Manchester United fans will take that as more confirmation of my bias - and hey, I hold my hands up, I AM biased when it comes to my former club’s (and that should probably be clubs’!) animosity towards them - but it is a judgement on where both teams stand at the moment.
Brighton are in better form, have more confidence and are relatively injury free. At United, the wheels are coming off a bit, and issues with the depth of their squad have been exposed a little bit.
I actually want to speak about Brighton and the incredible spirit and belief they have found this season, but I’ll put that to one side for a minute because I believe that we’re finally seeing some harsh reality taking hold at Old Trafford.
I pointed out a few weeks ago in this column, that under Erik Ten Hag the team only has a handful of points more at this stage of the season, and yet people were lauding him for United’s incredible progress.
I said then, and I stand by it, I believe he HAS done a really good job, and HAS moved the club forward from the position they were in when the board made the decision to sack Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
What he has done though, is start putting some foundations down, for a rebuilding programme that will take years to complete. And that is the key to where Ten Hag is at, going into this weekend’s big FA Cup occasion.
They have bought well, have improved the team, and there is a base. But building foundations in football takes time. Hell, even Pep Guardiola needed more than a year to get Manchester City’s base solid enough, and he inherited a team of champions.
It took Jurgen Klopp four years. And closer to home, it took Sir Alex Ferguson maybe six years before he had that structure to kick on and win the big trophies.
So it was never going to happen overnight - and I think that people simply got carried away because of the promising start the new manager made.
They looked vibrant, they looked like they had shape and purpose, and for a short time they even looked as though they could challenge for the Premier League title.
But again, you don’t put much-needed foundations in place in one summer. United’s squad was never good enough to challenge at that level, and beyond their first team, there still isn’t massive depth.
You can see that with injuries to Marcus Rashford and the two first choice centre halves. Without Rashford, there is not the goals threat up front, and at the back the defending in Sevilla was shambolic at times.
I think on the occasions when they’ve been without Casemiro in midfield, they’ve suffered there too. And the simple fact about the Premier League is, to win it, you need to compete with Manchester City’s incredible squad.
Yet it’s not all bleak. The fact they’ve won a trophy already shows the manager has something about him, especially given he had to deal with a difficult Cristiano Ronaldo situation…and handled it brilliantly.
They are in the FA Cup semi finals too - and despite making Brighton slight favourites, it’s clear they have a big chance of getting back to Wembley again. I still think it will take a few years though, to evolve into a squad that can actually win a league or a big European trophy.
It’s funny, because we’ve seen an impressive evolution at Brighton. They kept improving under Graham Potter, and now have taken a step forward under Roberto De Zerbi this season.
I think it’s right he has received so much praise this season, and also, right that owner Tony Bloom has been given credit, because no doubt, they are a well run club who have developed an edge in the transfer market with some modern methods.
But look beyond that, and let’s give the players some credit too. I believe they’ve discovered a belief in themselves - I can see an attitude there now, saying “we deserve to be here, on this big stage”.
That’s momentum for you. That is what confidence brings - belief. It is a powerful weapon and so long as they don’t freeze on the biggest stage them I can see them pulling off a big result on Sunday…even if it will hardly be a shock.
