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The Democratic veepstakes and former President Donald Trump’s apparent inability to understand how Vice President Kamala Harris could be Black and Asian at the same time (while also telling supporters Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, who is Jewish, is also a member of Hamas) justifiably grabbed attention this week.
But the machinery of trying to take or keep control of the House also continued to grind its gears.
The NRCC named 26 candidates to its “Young Guns” program providing special party help in competitive seats. Many of the districts were in a March 2023 announcement of NRCC “offensive pickup opportunities” — but not all of them. For example, one “young gun” is Caroleene Dobson in Alabama’s 2nd District, a seat that was redrawn by court order to give Black voters an opportunity to elect a second representative in the state delegation. That new map led 2nd District incumbent Rep. Barry Moore to run instead in the 1st District primary in March, when he beat fellow GOP incumbent Jerry Carl.
Also a “young gun” is Jeff Hurd in Colorado’s 3rd District, a seat that wasn’t on the list last year because it had a GOP incumbent, Rep. Lauren Boebert. Boebert decided she’d have a better chance of keeping her job by running for the open 4th District seat on the other side of the state rather than facing a rematch with Democrat Adam Frisch, who came within 546 votes of beating her in 2022. Frisch, who was able to turn Boebert’s celebrity into a fundraising bonanza, had $3.9 million in his campaign account on June 30, while Hurd had $157,000.
Some districts identified as “pickup opportunities” in 2023 do not have candidates on this week’s Young Guns list. Seats apparently moving outside the GOP’s reach include Florida’s 9th, an Orlando-area district that Joe Biden won by 17 points in which Democratic incumbent Darren Soto’s race was upgraded in April to Solid Democratic by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Other “opportunities” that aren’t on the latest list are challengers to Nevada Democrats Dina Titus and Susie Lee, Ohio Democrat Greg Landsman and Oregon’s Andrea Salinas, whose races are all rated Likely Democratic.
But North Carolina’s 13th and 14th Districts, which were considered in play at the start of the cycle, are now essentially surefire pickups for the GOP. They aren’t on the Young Guns list after the GOP-controlled legislature redrew the state’s map and incumbents Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson decided to run for Senate (in 2026) and attorney general instead.
Three other districts on last year’s “opportunities” list that do not have “young guns” haven’t had their primaries yet: Michigan’s 3rd and 8th Districts and New Hampshire’s 1st.
Democrats are also eyeing new districts that could be in play. House Majority PAC, which has ties to House Democratic leadership, announced an additional $24 million in ad reservations this week for the final months of the campaign. That includes targeting Wisconsin’s Republican-held 1st (Bryan Steil) and 3rd (Derrick Van Orden) districts, which weren’t part of the group’s original reservations.
Overall, the House contest is still expected to be close. Inside Elections’ latest “most likely range” is a pickup of five seats by either the Democrats or Republicans. And as a reminder, Democrats picking up a net of four seats would give them a one-seat majority next year.
Starting gate
(Sun) Devil’s in the details: While Arizona primary voters set the marquee Senate race, as expected, between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake, we didn’t learn until Wednesday night that Abe Hamadeh prevailed in the 8th District Republican primary over a large field that included 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters and former Rep. Trent Franks. Hamadeh was the candidate originally endorsed by Trump — before Trump also endorsed Masters the weekend ahead of the election. Still uncalled are the 3rd District Democratic primary for Gallego’s seat, where Yassamin Ansari held a 1,100-vote lead this morning with an estimated 86 percent counted, and the 1st District Democratic primary to pick a challenger to vulnerable GOP incumbent David Schweikert. In that race, Amish Shah was ahead by 1,600 votes, again with an estimated 86 percent counted.
Czar wars: As a senator, Harris raised her profile by attacking Trump’s border policies, and now she’s finding out how that feels, CQ Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports.
Direct examination: While Trump and Harris trade volleys over whether or not they’ll debate, CQ Roll Call’s Michael Macagnone looks at how Harris as a senator used her power to question witnesses at hearings.
Show (Me) time: Missouri Rep. Cori Bush will learn next week whether heavy spending behind a local prosecutor is enough to knock her out in the 1st District Democratic primary, colleague Victor Feldman writes.
Tired of reading? Then how about a Political Theater podcast twofer from Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick? This week’s episode delves into the Buckeye State with Ohio-regional-reporter-turned-health-editor Jessica Wehrman, while last week’s chat with political analyst Nathan L. Gonzales focused on chaos in campaigns.
ICYMI
Yeas and nays: Highlighting how votes in Congress often are more about scoring political points than making laws, colleague Jim Saksa takes a look at “messaging bills” and what they do and do not accomplish.
On the money: If “impoundment” is not in your vocabulary, put it there if Trump wins, as there will be a battle over purse power, CQ Roll Call’s Paul Krawzak writes. Colleague Caitlin Reilly, meanwhile, digs into Trump’s pitch for repealing taxes on Social Security benefits.
Stats: FactCheck.org provided a midyear update on how the country has changed during the Biden administration, which includes fodder that both parties could use in the fall.
Harris swing: By this time next week, Harris and her pick for VP will be heading to the research triangle of North Carolina for the fourth of seven scheduled stops on the running mate rollout tour. It all kicks off Tuesday in Philadelphia, although the campaign was cautioning reporters against inferring that means she is picking Keystone State Gov. Josh Shapiro. If you’re looking down the ballot, there are five states on the travel schedule with Senate races in either the Tilt or Lean Democratic column: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, along with Pennsylvania. Before that swing kicks off, Harris is expected to have officially claimed her party’s nomination for president. A virtual roll call vote, in which she’s the only nominee, begins today and is set to end Monday.
New ads: The Jewish Democratic Council of America released a new ad praising Harris for supporting Israel, fighting antisemitism, advocating abortion access and defending democracy. “She aligns with us on every issue of importance to the vast majority of Jewish voters,” said the group’s CEO, Halie Soifer, a former national security adviser to then-Sen. Harris. The ad buy is nearly $200,000 and will appear online and on streaming platforms in swing states.
Related: Also this week, Trump claimed that Harris, whose husband is Jewish, “doesn’t like Jewish people” and seemed to agree with a radio host who called second gentleman Doug Emhoff “a crappy Jew,’’ according to the AP.
Big buy: Everytown for Gun Safety plans to spend $45 million on TV and digital advertising, opening field offices in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania and hiring 30 new organizers and running campus recruitment drives in those states and in California, Minnesota, North Carolina, New York and Wisconsin, The Washington Post reports.
Off the ballot but still in the ad: The NRCC has a new TV ad blasting Alaska Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for walking in lockstep with Biden and telling reporters last year that she didn’t see any signs the president’s mental acuity was slipping. The ad is part of a previously announced $1.1 million ad reservation in the Anchorage market.
Empire State Dems strike back: Republicans’ strong showing in New York helped win them the House in 2022. The state’s Democratic Party highlighted a $5 million coordinated campaign in a memo this week. They’re planning to hire more than 80 staff members by the middle of August and have 35 field offices.
Endorsement watch: The New Democrat Coalition Action Fund endorsed Herb Conaway in New Jersey’s 3rd District, John Mannion in New York’s 22nd, Missy Cotter Smasal in Virginia’s 2nd, Eugene Vindman in Virginia’s 7th and Suhas Subramanyam in Virginia’s 10th. In Maine, former Republican senator and Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen endorsed independent Sen. Angus King for reelection.
What we’re reading
Columnist corner: Stu Rothenberg looks at a Trump campaign memo and questions the argument that while Harris is getting a “honeymoon” with the media and public, the dynamics in the race haven’t changed. David Winston, meanwhile, reiterates that voters’ top issue, inflation, is not going away just because Democrats are poised to put someone else at the top of the ticket.
Livin’ on a prayer: The Atlantic reviewed 58 prayers offered at Trump campaign rallies from November 2022, when he kicked off his reelection campaign, until last month. While the prayers hit a familiar theme among the religious right, that America’s special place in God’s kingdom can be restored, they also contain a new wrinkle: “That God has anointed a specific leader who, like those prophets of old, is prepared to defeat the forces of evil and redeem the country. And that leader is running for president.”
Scam PACs: The Bulwark investigates PACs that purport to raise money for Democratic candidates but only give a tiny percentage of the money they raise to campaigns. It found that such groups are “part of a growing universe of entities that have taken advantage of loose campaign finance regulations and the proliferation of online giving to raise millions of dollars, which they then use to raise more cash.”
Lion in winter: The Associated Press caught Biden at his first public appearance since he dropped his reelection bid and reports that he is still struggling to come to terms with fellow Democrats who cut him loose while also feeling a sense of relief that he won’t have to run what would have been a grueling race against Trump.
Golden $tate: Cash from California is fueling Harris’ campaign. From Jan. 1, 2023, to June 30 this year, Californians who contributed more than $200 gave close to $54 million to the Democratic presidential campaign account and allied groups, according to a review by CalMatters. And with Vance’s close ties to Silicon Valley, California money is also flowing to the Republican ticket.
Pod in disarray: Bloomberg News reports on mounting staff discontent at the parent company of Pod Save America, the enormously popular liberal podcast.
The count: 69 percent
That’s the segment of likely Florida voters who said they would vote “yes” on a proposed state constitutional amendment protecting a right to abortion before viability to protect a woman’s health, according to a University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab survey released Tuesday. Democrats had hoped the ballot question, which needs more than 60 percent approval to be enacted, would help boost candidates in key races since Republicans pushed to overturn the national right to abortion and have pushed for restrictions. But the survey found the same Florida voters preferred Trump over Harris, 49 percent to 42 percent, and GOP Sen. Rick Scott over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 47 percent to 43 percent. The poll of 774 likely voters was taken July 24-27 via telephone and online and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Nathan’s notes
Polls by Inside Elections taken in Michigan’s 7th District before Biden dropped out and in Ohio’s 9th District afterward show how Harris’ entry into the race seems to be boosting Democrats’ chances up and down the ballot.
Key race: #FL01
Candidates: Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., is being challenged by retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock in the Aug. 20 primary.
Why it matters: Dimmock’s candidacy is being backed by allies of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California. Gaetz led the successful effort to oust the speaker, and the involvement in the primary for this safe GOP seat is part of the revenge tour. Available polling has shown the incumbent well ahead.
Cash dash: Gaetz has brought in almost $5.5 million this cycle and spent $4.2 million as of the most recent report through June 30, compared with less than $300,000 raised by Dimmock and just $33,000 spent. But Florida Patriots PAC, a McCarthy-linked group that has run ads about allegations of Gaetz having sex with an underage girl, has spent $2.9 million through this week, including $887,000 to support Dimmock and $2 million attacking Gaetz. Outside spending to support Gaetz paled by comparison, totaling just $180,000.
Backers: Dimmock campaign contributors include former Vice President Dan Quayle and former Sen. Jack Danforth, R-Mo., as well as Rep. David Joyce’s campaign account.
Terrain: It’s the Florida panhandle. Gaetz won reelection with almost 68 percent of the vote in 2022. An internal poll of 400 likely voters taken July 8-10 showed Gaetz ahead 67 percent to 20 percent. In addition to a large military presence, it’s the home of Seaside, Fla., which is where the Jim Carrey movie “The Truman Show” was filmed. Gaetz actually grew up in the house from the movie.
Wild card: Maybe explaining the Danforth contribution, Dimmock’s day job is leading the Missouri Leadership Academy based in St. Louis, although he says he’s largely been working remotely, as he told the Florida Phoenix.
Coming up
Today is primary day in Tennessee, and last week’s At the Races ran down GOP Rep. Andy Ogles’ race for another term. Up next on Tuesday are primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Meanwhile, on the House battlefield appeared first on Roll Call.
