Nikol Pashinyan’s sweeping re-election in Armenia has raised fresh hopes that the border with Turkey could finally reopen after three decades of closure. The Armenian prime minister campaigned on restoring ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as moving Armenia closer to Europe – but constitutional reform remains a major obstacle.
The vote on 7 June gave Nikol Pashinyan a clear victory over the opposition. But his success could prove bittersweet after he fell short of the parliamentary majority needed to change the constitution.
Changing the constitution is part of Pashinyan’s peace efforts with Azerbaijan, brokered last year by United States President Donald Trump.
“This government is committed to passing what the Armenian opposition would refer to as 'the Aliyev referendum',” said Eric Hacopian, a Yerevan-based political consultant.
“The problem is, now they have no votes to bring it up because you need to get a two-thirds vote to change the constitution.”
Constitutional hurdles
On the back of the Washington peace talks, “Armenia and Azerbaijan had an understanding that, after the election in Armenia, there would be certain constitutional amendments”, explained Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
Baku insists Armenia must remove claims to Nagorno-Karabakh from the preamble to its constitution.
The two countries have clashed repeatedly over the contested territory. In 2023, Azerbaijan retook the breakaway enclave, causing more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee.
“We are looking forward to Armenia completely eliminating elements of its territorial claims,” Hajiyev said. “Then we will not have any stumbling blocks or hurdles on our agenda to move forward.”
Constitutional reform is also seen as important for normalising Armenia’s ties with Turkey, according to Hajiyev.
“It's not directly linked, but indirectly,” he said. “Once the Azerbaijan-Armenia agenda is solved, then Turkey will also act in a synchronised manner, opening the borders and also establishing a closer relationship.”
Border hopes
Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993, siding with Azerbaijan after ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence and seized Azerbaijani lands.
Efforts to restore ties are now gathering pace, said Zeynep Alemdar, an international relations professor at Dogus University in Istanbul.
“They've already declared in May 2026 that the border is going to be opened up, and all the bureaucratic, paperwork-type obstacles are actually being dismantled,” Alemdar said, noting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is believed to get on well with Pashinyan.
But energy-rich Azerbaijan remains crucial to Ankara, Alemdar said.
“Economically, comparing Azerbaijan versus Armenia for Ankara, of course Azerbaijan always wins... Of course Azerbaijan is going to be more influential,” Alemdar said.
Erdogan congratulated Pashinyan on his re-election, while the Turkish foreign ministry urged Yerevan in a statement to embrace “bold reforms” – seen by many as a call for constitutional change.
Cautious steps
Pashinyan’s lack of decisive parliamentary support and uncertainty over a possible referendum mean Ankara’s role could be important in securing lasting peace, said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center think tank in Yerevan.
“For Turkey this is a slow, gradual process of retaking the initiative with Armenia, away from Azerbaijan,” Giragosian said.
“Because in many ways, at every round it's been the Azerbaijan factor that's the key determinant. And according to sources in Ankara, they only have a yellow light of caution from Azerbaijan – it's not a red light, but it's not yet a green light to proceed.”
Reopening the Turkish-Armenian border would be welcomed by the European Union and Washington, as Ankara seeks to deepen its ties with both. But with Azerbaijan acting as a major investor and economic lifeline, Turkey is moving cautiously to avoid upsetting its powerful neighbour.
