Cas Mudde: Democrats are right not to focus on the economy
It is true that the economy and inflation are seen as the top problems by most Americans, but that does not necessarily mean that Democrats should run their midterm campaigns on economic issues. The country has been dealing with continued inflation, the possibility of a recession, and the prospect of an even worse energy crisis for months now.
The vast majority of Americans say they personally feel the pain of inflation and believe that the US economy is getting worse, not better. Running on the economy will make these feelings even more salient, while centering Joe Biden, whose approval ratings are near their lowest level during his presidency, and the Republican party, which is still more trusted on the economy than the Democratic party.
So how about running on the economic accomplishments of the Biden administration, like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)?
Turns out, while the individual policies of the bill are popular, only about one-third of Americans have heard of the IRA. That’s why, in this particular economic and political context, running primarily on abortion and the extremity and incompetence of Republican candidates like Doug Mastriano and Herschel Walker makes more sense.
Clear majorities of Americans, including independents, oppose the overturning of Roe v Wade, while there has been a “surge” in voter registration of women, including in battleground states like Arizona and Georgia. Although they mainly offset earlier increases in registration of Republicans, it is crucial for Democrats to get these newly mobilized voters to the voting booths in November. Will it be enough? I doubt it. But I am pretty certain it gives Democrats a better chance than a mainly socioeconomic campaign.
Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist and the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor in the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia
David Sirota: ‘It’s the economy, stupid’
Eight years ago amid the wreckage of the financial crisis, Democrats lost a key US Senate race in Colorado when their candidate focused almost exclusively on abortion rights and did not have a compelling economic message. The episode served as a cautionary tale warning Democrats that they may lose winnable elections if they are not willing to break with their big donors and offer a populist economic message. Without that kind of message, they may lose even if they’re right about conservatives’ social-issue extremism.
And yet, that 2014 cautionary tale now seems like a preview of Democrats’ 2022 election strategy. Polls show voters’ top two issues in the election are the economy and inflation – and yet Democrats have decided to spend much of their advertising resources on abortion-related messages, not inflation-related messages.
There is still time for a turnaround – and there is plenty for Democrats to say. They could be blaming Republicans for blocking the extension of the expanded child tax credit. They could pledge more direct economic help if they win the midterms. They could hammer Republicans for protecting their oil donors from price-gouging legislation.
In short, Democrats could be vilifying the entire plague of greedflation, whereby corporate oligopolies are using their market power to hike prices.
Doing that would require Democratic leaders to do the one thing they always seem most reluctant to do: offend their big donors.
But if they don’t do that – if they don’t remember their own “it’s the economy, stupid” mantra – then the national election could turn out like the Colorado election of 2014, and everything they purport to stand for could be lost: reproductive rights, democracy, everything.
David Sirota is a Guardian US columnist and an award-winning investigative journalist. He is an editor-at-large at Jacobin, and the founder of the Lever
LaTosha Brown: ‘The abortion message needs to be layered with other messages’
For Democrats to win, it’s all about three things: money, message and mobilization. And when it comes to the message, the message needs to be more layered.
Democrats should lead with a trifecta of messages focused on the economy, voting rights and racial justice.
They need to speak about the economy from a worker’s perspective. They need to humanize the issue and focus on the struggles of ordinary people, like wage stagnation and rising costs. They need to ditch the jargon. They need to lay the blame for the mess we’re in on Republicans and their corporate tax cuts, which only benefit the ultra-wealthy.
We also need to hear more on white nationalism, white supremacy and the continuing attack on voting rights. Democrats are side-stepping one of the biggest threats to our democracy, which voters, especially voters of color, want to hear about.
If Republicans are using racial fear as weapon, we need to lean into racial justice as a tool. There is an organizing opportunity in racial justice. That’s what will activate young people and voters of color, who are the fastest-growing electorate in the country.
We have to stop repeating this mantra that Republicans are good on message. It’s easier to have an elite message than an inclusive message. Republicans are just focused on the consolidation of white power and control by any means. The Democrats have a much more diverse and nuanced base, so the message needs to be layered.
Finally, Democrats should stay on the abortion message. Democrats didn’t have a fighting chance to win in the midterms, and that only changed thanks to Roe v Wade being overturned. It’s a message that’s important, but it needs to be layered with other messages in order to have most impact.
LaTosha Brown is the co-founder of Black Voters Matter
Ilyse Hogue: ‘Democrats need to go on the offensive’
Democrats have solid policy wins under their belts and even better ones in the pipeline if they can expand their margins in the Senate and hold the House. So why aren’t they polling better?
Simply put, because the national information landscape is a nightmare. Die-hard Republicans have a monolithic information system in Fox News. This machine puts Democratic candidates at a disadvantage out of the gate, which is too often compounded by an instinct to let the right trip themselves up instead of forcing the questions in the eyes of the voters. Only one party wants to cut social security, keep drug prices high, and criminalize pregnancy. Don’t make the voters guess. Lean into it.
Polls are like snapshots of moods on any given day, but in aggregate, the polls show that women are motivated right now and being pulled in many directions.
They are deeply affected by the fall of Roe and understand the Republican position on criminalizing abortion as a cascading crisis of autonomy, economic viability and health care access – all issues on which the Republican party has abandoned the mainstream.
Women – especially women of color – who bear the brunt of these compounding crises, are highly energized to vote, as is evidenced by voter registration numbers around the country.
The trick for Dems in the closing weeks of this consequential election is a one-two punch: go on offense and lift up the messengers that already have social currency in your electoral coalition. Invest in your community leaders, your PTA chairs, your TikTok influencers, your clergy, your warehouse workers.
There’s so much to tout: life-changing money to replace lead pipes in the infrastructure bill? Check! Get that to parents in unserved parts of Michigan. Incentives to bring clean-energy, high wage manufacturing jobs in the Inflation Reduction Act? Check! Get that to economically distressed families in the south-east. One more Senate seat and Biden promises to suspend the filibuster and codify Roe? Check! Get that to, well, women everywhere.
Ilye Hogue is the president of Purpose. She was formerly the president of Naral
Liza Featherstone: ‘Abortion alone can’t deliver the midterms’
When the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, a yard sign appeared around the corner from my home: “This is what happens when you don’t vote.”
By the next day, someone had fixed it, using a Sharpie to cross out the word “don’t”.
The quiet dispute in a reliably blue neighborhood seemed to underscore the perils of assuming that attacks on abortion rights will scare voters into voting Democratic.
Granted, most Americans disagree with the supreme court’s decision, and many are more motivated to vote this year as a result. But abortion alone can’t deliver the midterms to the Democrats.
Some wonder, with my Sharpie-wielding neighbor, how voting for Democrats has helped protect abortion rights lately. Besides, inflation is an even higher priority for more than eight out of 10 voters, and only 30% approve of Biden’s leadership on that issue.
Democratic leaders have sometimes seemed dismissive of inflation. The White House has repeatedly shrugged it off, and this summer, the Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman mocked a campaign video featuring his opponent in a grocery store discussing high food prices.
Worse, national Democratic leaders have been partying with wealthy donors, from the billionaire James Murdoch in Manhattan to real estate moguls in Los Angeles. No wonder they seem out of touch with people visiting food pantries or struggling to make rent.
If the Democrats can’t deliver a better economic message, many Americans may conclude that like the repeal of Roe v Wade, inflation is what happens when you vote.
Liza Featherstone is a columnist for Jacobin and the New Republic. She is the author of Divining Desire: Focus Groups and the Culture of Consultation (OR Books), among other titles
