Much has changed since the Bank of England predicted the economy would shrink for eight successive quarters last November. Threadneedle Street now thinks growth will be stronger, inflation higher and unemployment lower than it expected six months ago. It is no longer forecasting even a single quarter of negative growth, even allowing for strikes and the extra bank holiday for the king’s coronation.
One thing that has not changed is the relentless upward movement in interest rates, which the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) has just raised for a 12th successive time. This is comfortably a record. Previously it had never raised borrowing costs more than three times in a row.