Mexico is contending with two extremes at once this Saturday, September 5: a widening flood threat across the south and west, and a punishing heat wave baking the north, with highs reaching 45°C in nine states. Overnight, the offshore hurricane feeding much of that rain also changed status. Hurricane Marie has weakened to Category 1, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center's 2 a.m. advisory issued today, after several Mexican outlets spent Thursday and Friday describing it as Category 2.
Key Takeaways:
- Marie has dropped to Category 1, with sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph) and gusts to 185 km/h (115 mph), centered roughly 1,020 km (635 miles) west of the southern tip of Baja California Sur as of 2 a.m. today — down from the Category 2 strength it held Thursday night into Friday.
- Seventeen states are under some level of rain alert today, led by Sinaloa, southern Veracruz and northern Oaxaca, where totals could reach 150 mm.
- A same-day Conagua social media post named a different set of top-risk states than the official forecast bulletin — both are presented below rather than resolved into one.
- While the south braces for flooding, nine northern states face highs of 40 to 45°C on the same day.
- Forecasters are also tracking a low-pressure system south of the Baja California peninsula that could develop into the season's next named storm.
Where the Rain Will Hit Hardest
The country's top rainfall warning today covers Sinaloa, southern Veracruz and northern Oaxaca, where the national weather service is calling for very heavy to locally intense rain of 75 to 150 millimeters — enough to trigger flash flooding in a matter of hours. A second band of 14 states, running from Baja California Sur and Sonora through Nuevo León, Jalisco, Puebla and Chiapas, should see 50 to 75 mm, according to a Saturday morning breakdown of the national forecast. Combined, that top-tier-plus-second-tier list is what adds up to the 17 states now under a meaningful rain warning; lighter showers of 5 to 50 mm stretch even further, touching roughly a dozen additional states and Mexico City.
Marie's Status: Category 1 Down from Category 2
The hurricane touched Category 2 strength Thursday night into Friday, with sustained winds near 170 km/h at its peak, matching the timeline Mexico's weather service laid out in its own forecast table. But the U.S. National Hurricane Center's latest advisory, issued at 2 a.m. today, puts Marie's winds back down at 90 mph (150 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 970 millibars — solidly Category 1, and slightly ahead of the weakening schedule Mexican forecasters had projected. The storm is moving northwest at a crawling 13 km/h and remains hundreds of miles from making landfall.
Even without a direct hit, Marie's reach is wide. Its circulation continues to drive dangerous swells — up to 4 meters off Baja California Sur and 2.5 meters along Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco and Colima — plus gusty winds and scattered heavy rain along the western coastline.
A Rare Three-Way Weather Collision
Marie isn't acting alone. Mexico's summer monsoon is separately dumping rain across the northwest, while what forecasters are tracking as the season's 36th tropical wave is feeding moisture into the country's west and south. That overlap — a weakening hurricane, an active monsoon and a tropical wave — is a large part of why so many regions are under some kind of watch on the same day. It also fits a pattern for the season: Mexico's 2026 Pacific hurricane season is projected to produce 18 to 21 named storms, well above the roughly 15-storm historical average, a forecast issued jointly by the national weather service and researchers Jorge Zavala Hidalgo and Christian Domínguez Sarmiento at UNAM's Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change, who point to El Niño-warmed Pacific waters as the extra fuel behind the busier-than-normal count.
Marie's own path traces back to Tuesday, September 1, when it formed as a tropical storm off the coast of Colima — the 13th named storm of the Eastern Pacific season. Its outer bands were already causing problems days before it reached hurricane strength: flooding hit a street in Pachuca, Hidalgo, that same Tuesday, and by Thursday, overflow from the Lagunitas creek had flooded parts of San Lucas as the storm intensified through hurricane strength offshore, according to reporting from that period.
The North's Other Extreme: Up to 45°C
While the south and west watch for floodwater, nine northern and Gulf-coast states are dealing with the opposite problem. Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Tabasco and Oaxaca are all forecast to hit highs of 40 to 45°C today, per the same national forecast breakdown. That means Sinaloa and Oaxaca are unusual double cases — both are on the list for heavy rain risk and extreme heat on the same day, in different parts of each state. A wider band of 14 states, including Baja California Sur, Jalisco, Veracruz and Guerrero, will see slightly milder highs of 35 to 40°C.
Mexico City and the Central Plateau
The capital starts cool and hazy, with a partly cloudy morning giving way to afternoon showers that could bring thunder and hail, according to live weather coverage tracking the forecast today. Expect a low near 12 to 14°C and a high of 26 to 28°C. Nearby Toluca will run cooler still, from 7 to 9°C in the morning up to 22 to 24°C in the afternoon, with wind gusts as strong as 50 km/h. Mountain areas of Chihuahua, Durango, the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala and Puebla could see overnight lows dip close to freezing.
What Comes Next
Marie is expected to keep weakening gradually over the next several days, according to the National Hurricane Center's forecast track, with sustained winds easing further by Sunday. Mexican meteorologists differ slightly on exactly when it drops to tropical-storm strength — one forecast points to Monday, September 7, while the national weather service's own published timeline suggests Tuesday, September 8 — but the broader trend is consistent across sources: a continued, gradual decline.
Separately, forecasters are watching a broad area of low pressure forming south of the Baja California peninsula that one outlet reported carries roughly a 60% chance of developing into a tropical system within seven days.
What Officials Are Telling Residents
Civil protection coordinators across the affected states are urging residents to steer clear of flooded roads, stay away from swollen rivers and streams, and keep basic emergency supplies on hand. Along the Pacific coast, from Baja California Sur down through Colima, mariners and beachgoers are being told to avoid the water and delay nonessential boat trips while Marie's swells persist. Officials say updated bulletins will continue through the weekend as both Marie and the new low-pressure system develop.
```
