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Meta Platforms (META) reports Q2 earnings after market close on July 29, and the data heading into this event paints a picture of a company caught between exceptional operational execution and intensifying investor anxiety over capital expenditure.
Consensus estimates call for earnings per share (EPS) of $7.18 on revenue of $60.22 billion, which would represent about a 27% year-over-year sales growth, a meaningful deceleration from the 33% surge delivered in Q1.
META stock is trading around $595, down more than 8% year-to-date and roughly 25% off its all-time high, leaving the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at roughly 20x, well below its three- to five-year historical average of 23x to 25x.
Prediction markets assign a 96% probability that Meta will beat the consensus EPS figure, which would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of earnings surprises.
Where Options Data Suggests META Shares Are Headed
Heading into the earnings print, the put-to-call ratio on options contracts expiring at the end of this week sits at 0.25x currently, indicating a strong bullish skew.
And the upper price on those contracts, according to Barchart, is set at nearly $637, signaling potential for a 7.25% post-earnings rally.
If the earnings momentum does indeed drive META shares to that price, it would have broken above its key moving averages (MAs) as well, which may sustain their upward trajectory in the near term.
All Eyes on Capex as Meta Warms Up to Report Q2 Earnings
Capital expenditure is the dominant variable heading into Wednesday’s report. Meta raised its 2026 capex guidance earlier this year to $125 billion to $145 billion, an 8% increase at the midpoint that triggered the post-Q1 selloff.
Consensus now models roughly $135 billion in capex for the year, with estimates climbing toward $174 billion the following year.
Any further upward revision could reprise the negative reaction that followed Alphabet Inc’s recent disclosure of $44.9 billion in quarterly capex and raised full-year guidance toward $200 billion.
What differentiates Meta from Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) at this juncture is the funding mechanism.
Meta generated $12.39 billion in free cash flow in Q1, maintained a 41.4% operating margin, carries a debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.39x, and boasts interest coverage of over 71x.
It returned $26.25 billion in buybacks during 2025, with the program still active, in contrast to Google, which suspended buybacks after reporting negative free cash flow for the first time in its history last quarter.
What to Look for in META’s Q2 Earnings?
The advertising engine remains the critical proof point for AI monetization. In Q1, ad impressions grew 19% year-on-year while average price per ad rose 12%, both representing the strongest rates in more than a year.
With revenue growth expected to moderate in the second financial quarter, any softening in these dual metrics will draw scrutiny about whether the massive artificial intelligence investment is truly enhancing ad targeting and user engagement at scale.
Beyond the core ad business, investors will focus on forward guidance for Q3, where current models project $63.2 billion in revenue, as well as commentary on the rumored $10 billion cloud computing deal with Anthropic and adoption data for the Muse Spark 1.1 AI system.
Reality Labs continues to burn roughly $4 billion per quarter, but the segment’s losses are dwarfed by the Family of Apps, which generates roughly 140 times that revenue.
How Wall Street Recommends Playing META Stock
Wall Street remains largely bullish on META shares heading into the giant’s earnings release.
The consensus rating on Meta Platforms remains at "Strong Buy," with the mean price objective of $1,015 signaling potential upside of about 70% from here.
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