The Bayesian was moored around 300 meters off the coast of Porticello when it was struck by freak weather conditions last Monday and sank.
The boat had been carrying 22 people, 15 of whom were rescued and seven of whom died—including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch.
It was considered technologically advanced and had been restored four years ago. It is still unclear exactly how the yacht sank, but marine accident investigation teams have assessed the sunken vessel and have been reporting their findings.
Sicily has long been known as a sailing paradise with azure waters, underwater caves, warm, dry summers and relatively calm conditions.
But thanks to climate change, could more erratic weather patterns threaten the future of Sicily as a sailing destination?
The Mediterranean is warming
Initial hypotheses suggest a downburst played a role in capsizing the Bayesian.
Climate scientists are linking the freak weather event in Sicily to climate change and the warming Mediterranean sea.
According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, these are “powerful winds that descend from a thunderstorm and spread out quickly once they hit the ground.”
Climate scientists are linking the freak weather event in Sicily to climate change and the warming Mediterranean sea. Waters have reached 30C, up three degrees from its average temperature, following two months of brutal heatwaves.
Warming waters have also contributed to more frequent episodes of exceptional weather.
“Occurrences of tornadoes or Mediterranean hurricanes have been increasing in frequency over the last 10 to 15 years,” Roberto Danavaro, a marine biologist at the University of Ancona, told the Guardian.
“And based on the high temperatures, we are likely to see more in September and October. The heat of this summer will not bring anything good.”
However, the captain of the Bayesian James Cutfield is also under investigation for possible manslaughter and culpable shipwreck.
“We didn’t see it coming.”
Captain of the Bayesian, James Cutfield
The 51-year-old New Zealand national has been questioned by magistrates and will undergo further questioning this week, Italian daily La Repubblica reports.
Under Italian law, being placed under investigation doesn’t imply any guilt and doesn’t necessarily result in criminal charges.
News site ANSA also reports that other members of the crew are also likely to be investigated as prosecutors consider whether the sinking was caused by negligence or errors.
Cutfield told Italian press that the storm had taken them by surprise: “We didn’t see it coming.”
A crew member was on duty on the bridge during the night and was in possession of equipment to receive weather warnings. But images show that the rocket to signal an emergency was launched half an hour after the yacht began to sink.
"The crew should have checked that everything was closed."
Architect of the Bayesian, Franco Romani
The architect of the Bayesian, Franco Romani, told Italian newspaper La Stampa that the yacht was designed to withstand “all weather conditions.”
He believes the sinking was due to a side hatch being left open, which would have allowed water to enter below deck as the boat began to list. “The crew should have checked that everything was closed,” he added.
Marine investigation teams have confirmed that the vessel remains intact underwater and the mast was not broken.
Is sailing under threat in Sicily?
The downburst appears to have hit a restricted area—with neighboring boats remaining unscathed—and formed very rapidly, meaning the crew had little time to prepare.
“As with many Mediterranean destinations, Sicily is subject to seasonal winds, including the Mistral (northwestern wind) and the Sirocco (southeastern wind), which can cause rapid changes in weather conditions,” says Raphael Sauleau, CEO of international yachting company IYC.
Eva de Wilde, who runs the yachting holiday company EcoSailors with her partner Pietro Paolo Vital, notes that end-of-season downbursts are getting more frequent as the sea warms.
“Very often the Mediterranean is seen as a calm pool but you always need to keep an eye on the weather forecast,” she says.
Yachting experts also say there is plenty you can do to improve safety and preparedness when sailing.
James Ballard, who captained superyachts for 25 years and is now CEO of House of Assets, says that anchorages are generally quite safe in Sicily but again, the wind is something to be aware of.
“If you are on the north coast [where the Bayesian was moored] for example you have a long way to get around to cover on the east side including going through the Messina strait,” Ballard says.
"Sailing always comes with risk so you have to be fully prepared, have researched where you are going and safe ports of call and that you have adequate safety equipment on board."
James Ballard, CEO of House of Assets.
His advice is to put out more anchor chains than you might normally when mooring.
“This means if the wind does pick up and you don’t have time to start the engines you have enough chain to hold the boat.” He also says it is essential to have someone on watch in the evenings.
“Sailing always comes with risk so you have to be fully prepared, have researched where you are going and safe ports of call and that you have adequate safety equipment on board,” he adds.
Both Sauleau and de Wilde emphasize that incidents like the sinking of the Bayesian in this region are not the norm.
“The sea, by its nature, can be unpredictable, and it’s crucial to adhere to all safety protocols, even under seemingly serene conditions,” Sauleau says. “But Sicily has long been a favored sailing destination with a history of few reported incidents.”
De Wilde says the extreme conditions that hit the Bayesian should not put people off sailing in the area.
“What happened to the Bayesian is something really uncommon,” she says. “When they explain exactly what happened we will all be able to learn from their experience and be even more prepared for an event like this.
“Sailing around Sicily you will discover this amazing region in a special and different way. Only a sailboat can offer you this particular experience,” she adds.
