We’re just one Saturday away from finding out which teams are headed to the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff and Tuesday night’s penultimate rankings reveal set the table perfectly for championship week across the sport.
While Oregon remained No. 1 for the fifth consecutive week, there was quite a shakeup behind the Ducks as Rivalry Week saw a number of playoff hopefuls stumble.
College Football Playoff: The new 12-team format, rankings and seeding, explained
That begins with an Ohio State team that tumbled from No. 2 to No. 6 after losing to Michigan at home. Elsewhere, Miami (Fla.) dropped from No. 6 to No. 12 while Arizona State only jumped from No. 16 to No. 15.
Each contender’s path to the playoff is exceedingly clear at this point, but that doesn’t mean all of them will be happy about it. Here are the biggest winners and losers from the final rankings before Sunday’s College Football Playoff field reveal.
The #CFBPlayoff bracket if it was played today pic.twitter.com/TLgtApI45d
— Brandon Marcello (@bmarcello) December 4, 2024
Winner: Alabama Crimson Tide
It appears only one thing can slow the Crimson Tide. It’s not Nick Saban’s retirement and it’s not three losses (including two to unranked teams). It’s Clemson.
We should’ve known this rivalry wasn’t dead yet.
Alabama fans can continue hating on the Tigers because they are the only thing standing in the way of the playoff. If No. 8 SMU beats No. 17 Clemson, Alabama will be safely in the postseason. If Clemson wins, the Tigers get the ACC’s automatic bid and the committee will have to decide between SMU, Alabama and South Carolina for the final spot (more on this in a moment).
Essentially the only path that guarantees a playoff berth for Alabama is an SMU win, as College Football Playoff selection committee chair Warde Manuel explained:
“Those who are not playing [in conference championship games], we will not adjust those teams.” Manuel told ESPN.
"Alabama is 3-1 against current top-25 teams and Miami is 0-1. Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500 and Miami is 4-2."
CFP Selection Committee Chair Warde Manuel on why Alabama is ranked above Miami in the latest CFP rankings. pic.twitter.com/0gWteS5nA8
— ESPN (@espn) December 4, 2024
And to think Alabama fans considered this year a disaster for most of the season.
Loser: South Carolina
This year’s recipient of the Florida State Award for worst snub has already been locked up by South Carolina. After defeating Clemson on the road, the Gamecocks were effectively told, “thanks, but no thanks” by the committee on Tuesday.
Manuel explained to ESPN that teams who aren’t playing this weekend will not be readjusted because there are no more data points to consider.
That is an astoundingly brutal blow to South Carolina, which would otherwise have a strong playoff case if the Clemson team it just beat wins the ACC title game. Instead, the committee apparently won’t take that into consideration on the Gamecocks’ resume.
The rage emanating from Columbia is justified.
Winner: Notre Dame
It’s one of those years when Notre Dame not having a conference title game is a good thing again.
Coming in at No. 4 in the rankings, Notre Dame can skip right to the part where the Irish book their playoff travel and start game prepping. Without a conference championship game this week, Notre Dame is essentially locked in to the playoff and you’ve really got to give some credit to head coach Marcus Freeman for pulling the team together after a Week 2 loss at home to Northern Illinois should’ve derailed the season.
Instead, the Irish rolled over their remaining opponents including two beatdowns on neutral fields against ranked Navy and Army. Whoever has to come play in South Bend — and if the rankings hold, that’ll be Alabama — is going to absolutely hate it.
Loser: Big 12
A few weeks ago the Big 12 thought it had a shot at getting two teams in the playoff. Now the conference is just fortunate to get one — and it should prepare to miss out on a first-round bye.
Because of the playoff format, the best the No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils and No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones can hope for is to impress the committee enough to earn a home playoff game. If these rankings are the rankings we get on Sunday, the Big 12 winner would be the 12th seed and face No. 5 Penn State on the road. With Boise State ranked 10th, the Mountain West favorite can clinch a first-round bye if it defeats No. 20 UNLV on Friday.
That’s a brutal road trip for an 11-win Big 12 champion.
Winner: Mountain West
Congratulations to the Mountain West for essentially locking up the Group of Five’s guaranteed playoff spot reserved for the highest-ranked non-Power Four conference champion.
If No. 10 Boise State defeats No. 20 UNLV, the Broncos will get a first-round bye (which is kind of a shame for those of us getting excited about a playoff game on the blue turf in Idaho). If UNLV wins, it’ll be the highest-ranked G5 champion.
With Tulane’s loss to Memphis last week knocked the AAC out of the running, expect some champagne flowing in the Mountain West offices.
