Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2024 win totals. Up next: the Bengals.
Many football pundits are willing to look past the Cincinnati Bengals’ disappointing 2023 season because they’ll likely be Super Bowl contenders with a healthy Joe Burrow.
But Burrow’s health is no longer guaranteed, with a lengthy list of past injuries, including last year’s wrist injury on his throwing hand that cut short his season. Burrow and the Bengals might continue their now yearly tradition of playing catch-up in the AFC North standings if his throwing hand isn’t fully healed by the season opener. Cincinnati has started 0–2 the past two seasons.
It also doesn’t help that the Bengals could have changes to the offense with the departure of former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who left to become the Tennessee Titans’ head coach and was replaced by Dan Pitcher.
It was a good sign, however, that Burrow was on the field the past few months to work with his teammates and get a grasp of Pitcher’s new scheme. Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who made a trade request and quickly rescinded it, and star wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who’s seeking a new contract, were also on the field during mandatory minicamp. That wasn’t the case with wide receiver Tee Higgins, but he should be on the field for training camp after signing his franchise tag tender.
The Bengals have contract dilemmas and a few roster holes, but that shouldn’t prevent them from contending if Burrow is healthy.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Not extending contracts of star players
The Bengals have had a few contract dilemmas this offseason, most notably with Hendrickson, Chase and Higgins. But the team’s biggest contract dispute is with Higgins, who missed the team’s entire offseason program before signing the one-year franchise tag in June. The team has until July 17 to work out a multi-year contract extension with him, but that scenario seems unlikely, according to multiple reports.
The Bengals might not be willing to agree to a lucrative long-term contract extension with Higgins because they already paid Burrow and also need to prioritize Chase’s contract. That could lead to the Bengals trading Higgins (if the season goes sideways) or they could let him walk as a free agent after the season. But the team at least avoided needless training camp drama and can focus on winning a Super Bowl with Higgins and Chase as Burrow’s top two targets. For the next few months, the Bengals can now prioritize locking up Chase.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 7 to 11
The Bengals face the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens during the first six weeks of the season, but the other four games in that stretch are pretty favorable, with matchups against the New England Patriots, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers and New York Giants. But the competition level won’t let up for five consecutive weeks, starting with a road matchup against the Cleveland Browns in Week 7. From there, Cincinnati will host the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders before back-to-back road games against the Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers, who should be better with coach Jim Harbaugh. The Raiders could be one of the surprise teams of 2024, with a strong defense led by Maxx Crosby. Overall, the Bengals don’t have the toughest schedule, which could help them return to the postseason after missing it in ’23.
Breakout player to watch: RB Chase Brown
Brown didn’t get many opportunities as a rookie last season, but he did have a few impressive moments during the second half of the season. The 2023 fifth-round pick showed flashes during his nine-carry game for 61 rushing yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13. He also displayed his versatility with 81 receiving yards and one touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 14. Brown should see more carries in his second season, with Joe Mixon now playing for the Houston Texans. But he’ll need to earn them in training camp because the team might be leaning toward free-agent addition Zack Moss as the starter for Week 1.
Best-case scenario: Burrow stays healthy the entire season
Burrow has dealt with significant injuries in most offseasons of his NFL career, leading to slow starts during the season. Last summer, he injured his calf and it impacted him most of the first month before he gained a rhythm on the field, which didn’t last long because he sustained the season-ending wrist injury during Week 11. There might be concerns of the wrist injury affecting Burrow’s throwing motion during the 2024 season. But perhaps he’ll get to test out his throwing hand during the preseason and joint scrimmages to let him know he’s fully recovered.
If that’s the case, the Bengals should quickly regain their spot as one of the top teams capable of ending the Chiefs’ Super Bowl reign of the past two years. In a perfect world, Burrow leans on Higgins and Chase to capture his first career MVP and guides the Bengals back to the Super Bowl to finish the job they fell short of during the 2021 season. But the Bengals likely can’t afford to fall behind in the standings, which they managed to overcome two years ago but cost them substantially last season. A healthy Burrow and perhaps a perfect record near Halloween could be early signs of a special season brewing in Cincinnati.
Worst-case scenario: Burrow’s wrist injury affects his play on the field
Obviously, the worst-case scenario would be the wrist injury hurting Burrow’s play on the field. Perhaps it could be worse than last year’s calf injury because this one might alter how Burrow releases the ball. The Bengals didn’t bring back Tyler Boyd and are going to need Burrow to develop chemistry with a third wideout who likely won’t have much experience. The Bengals desperately need Burrow to play at an elite level because the defense might not be as strong as in year’s past. The unit was surprisingly disappointing last season under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. They’re going to need many players to step up if Burrow has a slow start because of the wrist injury. Jake Browning was one of the more impressive backup quarterbacks we saw get extended run across the league in 2023, going 4–3 filling in for Burrow last year. But even with him back, the team’s ceiling is significantly higher with its MVP candidate on the field.
Head coach-quarterback tandem ranking
No. 7: Taylor (12) and Burrow (2)
The only legitimate worry for Burrow is his health. He has missed 16 games due to injury through four seasons, while also playing through other maladies. As for Taylor, he’ll be without Callahan. How much will that impact Cincinnati? We’ll find out. —Matt Verderame
Fantasy pick: Moss
Moss is in the best spot he’s ever been in to produce consistent numbers, as he’ll be the new featured back in a high-octane Bengals offense. He showed his skills last season, ranking third in PPR points among runners from Weeks 2 to 6 before Jonathan Taylor reclaimed a prominent role in Indianapolis. At the high end of his projections, Moss could push into the top 12 among backs. —Michael Fabiano
Best bet: Burrow under 4,000.5 passing yards (-125) at DraftKings
Burrow is starting to compile an injury history and the wrist ligament he tore is necessary for stability and could also affect his touch. Usually after repair of the scapholunate ligament an 80% return of strength and range of motion is expected. That injury and a new OC are enough to give me pause when looking at his season-long totals. —Jennifer Piacenti
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 32 NFL Teams in 32 Days: Bengals’ Fate Rests With the Wrist of Joe Burrow.
