
The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points last month for the third consecutive time after August’s consumer price index (CPI) increased higher than expected. The fifth-straight hike this year to the federal funds rate brings it to a range of 3% to 3.25%, the highest since 2008. The Fed’s new projections show the key rate to end this year at 4.25-4.5% and end 2023 at 4.5%-4.75%.
Moreover, the higher-than-expected employment data and hotter-than-expected CPI for September would keep the Fed on track to approve an aggressive rate hike in its November meeting. Overall, the lingering macro headwinds are increasing the odds of a recession.