Bowl games and the College Football Playoff are approaching, and the NFL has gone into the final month of the regular season. So, it’s time to put even more thought into what NFL teams would like to do in the 2023 draft with the best available players from the NCAA feeder stream.
NFL teams have been doing their due diligence all season on those prospects, and now, things ramp into high gear. The scouting combine will arrive with a crash in about two months, pro days will happen right after, and before you know it, the draft will be here to provide hope to the hopeless, and bring even more quality to those teams who have done it right to date.
So, with that in mind, here’s one way the first round of the 2023 NFL draft could go.
(The Miami Dolphins, who would have the 24th pick otherwise if the season ended today, forfeited that pick as part of the NFL’s punishment for tampering.)
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
1. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The only real question about Young’s NFL transition might be his size (6-foot-0, 194 pounds, unofficially). But for a Texans team in need of talent at a lot of position, and bereft of a true franchise quarterback, they could do a lot worse than Young, who has proven to be great in the pocket, and a wizard when it comes to extemporaneous plays. His ability to throw with precision to all areas of the field from a muddied pocket sets him apart as a prospect.
2. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
The Seahawks should not select Carter second overall because their run defense stinks, though that is a consideration. They should select him with the second overall pick because, with his ridiculous combination of power, technique, and the ability to shoot around blockers with running back-level gap precision, Carter is the best interior defensive line prospect since Aaron Donald came out of Pitt in 2014. He is the type of player who can become the fulcrum of your entire defense, and Pete Carroll certainly needs that.
As a public service, this is your occasional Jalen Carter Is Utterly Ridiculous tweet. pic.twitter.com/9gCfWjCNGx
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 14, 2022
3. Chicago Bears: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Clearly, the Bears have needs in their receiver group and along the offensive line. Justin Fields’ continued development will be reliant on his team’s ability to settle these issues in the offseason, via free agency and the draft. But with the third overall pick, you probably don’t want to reach; you want to grab the best player left on the board, and Anderson is the best edge defender in this class. His 14 sacks and 59 total pressures in the 2022 season, coming as they have against a high rate of chips and double-teams, speak to formidable NFL potential.
4. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Lions are cooking with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and Jared Goff now benefits from receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and D.J. Chark. But if you have the opportunity to get another transcendent receiver to add to that aerial attack, why not? TCU quarterback Max Duggan’s Heisman finalist season had a lot to do with Johnston’s ability to get downfield and separate with size (6-foot-4, 215), straight-line speed, and route awareness. Whether Goff is the Lions’ quarterback in 2023 or not (and right now, there’s a pretty good argument for him to be just that), Johnston might take that offense to an entirely new level.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints): Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
The Eagles are in the highly enviable position of having two picks in the first round, and no real glaring needs. Cornerback has been a boon position this season with the efforts of Darius Slay and James Bradberry, but you can never have too many great cornerbacks in the modern NFL, and Ringo has the tracking speed and ball skills to make that secondary even more of a problem than it is now.
6. Arizona Cardinals: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The 2022 Cardinals don’t have a single starting receiver ranking above 44th in DVOA and 43rd in DYAR (DeAndre Hopkins), and with Kyler Murray out for the rest of the season, and that offense circling the drain even Murray was healthy, we don’t know if change is afoot in the coaching ranks. Whether it’s Kliff Kingsbury or somebody else in 2023, the Cards must reinforce the receiver position in smarter ways. Addison was Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams’ primary target in 2022, and he would help Arizona’s offense exponentially with his quickness off the line, speed cuts to bedevil cornerbacks, Utah cornerback Clark Phillips is a first-round talent, as we’ll see later in this mock, but Addison embarrassed him on this 48-yard catch.
Utah's Clark Phillips III is a first-round talent. USC's Jordan Addison put him in a box here with speed cuts and strength. pic.twitter.com/0dtlXhf5aR
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 14, 2022
7. Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
This is not the way Stroud or his representatives would like the draft to go, but if he gets past the Bears, and the Lions decide that Jared Goff is their guy, it may well be so. We of course have no idea what the Colts will be doing with their head coach and offensive staff this offseason, but as much as Stroud has proven to be an ideal version of the modern pocket quarterback, with some movement skills, he could be the guy the Colts need to start their rebuild on that side of the ball.
8. Las Vegas Raiders: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Raiders have needs all along their defense, and the pass rush beyond Max Crosby has been a problem. Chandler Jones has been up-and-down, and the Clelin Farrell experiment has not gone well. Murphy has the speed and power off the edge to get things done, and at 6-foot-5 and 275 pounds, he can also kick inside to disrupt in sub-packages.
9. Carolina Panthers: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
There are those who will tell you that Richardson is a two-year project in the NFL. Yes, he is an unfinished prospect, and he will need further development. But his Florida tape shows a player who can make a Justin Fields-level impact as a runner and as a deep thrower. As is the case with Fields, the short and intermediate stuff can be a bit of a mystery, but he’d give the Panthers all kinds of options at the position they don’t have right now, and there’s a ton of potential over time.
10. Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Falcons have the NFL’s worst pressure rate at 15.3%, and that looks even worse when you remove Grady Jarrett from the equation and focus on Atlanta’s edge guys. Rookie Arnold Ebiketie has shown potential, but there are few NFL teams more in need of a true force multiplier outside. Wilson reminds me of the rookie version of Aldon Smith in that his pass-rush plan needs a bit of work, but the athletic tools are ridiculous. He’ll get some NFL sacks based on that alone, and when his acumen catches up to that athleticism, watch out.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Since Week 9, Trevor Lawrence has been as good as any quarterback in the NFL, completing 130 of 181 passes for 1,362 yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 111.7. Veteran tight end Evan Engram has been a nice surprise during that time, but Engram is on a one-year deal, and you’d imagine that head coach Doug Pederson would like the kind of tight end he had in Philadelphia with Zach Ertz. Mayer, who brings a complete skill set for the position from blocking to creating explosive plays downfield, would be an excellent addition to a passing game that’s really starting to take off.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Now that the Texans have their franchise quarterback in Young, let’s add to that with Smith-Njigba, who might slip through the first half of the first round after a 2022 season in which he missed all but three games due to injury. But if you go back to his 2021 season, when he caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards, and nine touchdowns, you’ll see a slot dominator who can also burn enemy defenses from the outside. Adding Young and Smith-Njigba in this draft would revolutionize a Texans offense in desperate need of just that.
Let us not remember the injured Jaxon Smith-Njigba from 2022. Let us instead remember the Jaxon Smith-Njigba from 2021, who turned cornerbacks into innocent bystanders all season long. pic.twitter.com/tq3y5M9CrU
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 15, 2022
13. Pittsburgh Steelers: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Johnson is most likely the best overall offensive tackle in this draft class, that’s exactly what the Steelers could use, struggling through the adventures of Dan Moore Jr. as they have been. Moore has allowed 13 sacks and 70 total pressures in his nearly two NFL seasons, and as a fourth-round pick in 2021, he was a bridge to whoever was next. In this scenario, Johnson has next, and he’s coming off a season in which he’s allowed one sack and nine total pressures, while mowing down run defenders along the way.
14. Green Bay Packers: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Packers’ offense is in all kinds of transition, and though receiver is an obvious need, left tackle David Bakhtiari hasn’t played a full season since 2019. He’s still one of the best in the business when healthy, but that’s a big “when” these days. Now, we are not mocking Skoronski to Green Bay because he’s the grandson of Bob Skoronski, the legendary tackle who won five championships with Vince Lombardi. That is a nice story. We are mocking Skoronski to the Packers because he has allowed just one sack and six total pressures this season, and he has the strength, quickness off the snap, and acumen to deal with defenders of any stripe.
15. Detroit Lions: Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
If one Sewell is a good idea for the Lions, how about two? Now that right tackle and 2021 seventh-overall pick Penei Sewell is a prominent receiver in Ben Johnson’s offense, perhaps it’s about time to add Noah Sewell to Aaron Glenn’s defense. Detroit has two good linebackers in rookie Malcolm Rodriguez and veteran Alex Anzalone, but Sewell brings a different level of athleticism, versatility, and productivity to the table.
16. Los Angeles Chargers: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
For all the nonsense we’ve seen of late on Justin Herbert… one of the broken parts of the Chargers’ offense that Herbert is forced to transcend is the fact that his receivers really struggle to gain separation. Hyatt, who declared for the draft on Wednesday, is the Biletnikoff Award winner, and the most productive receiver in the SEC. Most importantly for the purposes of this particular team, he can break away from just about any defender, creating the kinds of open space Herbert would love to see from his targets.
I'm not saying that there's an NFL team (Chargers) in desperate need of a receiver who can separate (Chargers) and might find Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt interesting (Chargers).
I'm not saying that at all. pic.twitter.com/5q2hC3re9p
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 14, 2022
17. Seattle Seahawks: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Now that Pete Carroll has the best player in this draft class thanks to the Broncos, let’s give Seattle’s defense something else it needs — consistent edge pressure. Uchenna Nwosu was a free-agency steal… but outside of that, more needs to be done. Verse has the strength to bull through blockers, but the thing that really stands out on his tape is an insane closing speed that will have NFL quarterbacks with their heads on swivels.
18. New York Jets: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
The Wednesday news that Robert Saleh has kicked Zach Wilson back up to second on the depth chart doesn’t really change anything regarding Wilson’s long-term future. He’s careening around the edge of bust status, and there’s so much to work through for him to avoid it… well, it might be best for Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas to punt on Wilson and get a new long-term quarterback.
Some will tell you that Hooker put up his insane stats (229 of 329 for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns, and two interceptions before he suffered a season-ending ACL injury) in Josh Heupel’s souped-up offense. My response would be, “So what?” There are enough NFL concepts in that offense to transfer over, and Hooker also has enough mobility to escape the travails of the Jets’ severely iffy offensive line.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Will Tom Brady play football in 2023 at age 46? This, we do not yet know. If he does, will he do that for the Buccaneers? This, we also do not know. What we do know is that Byron Leftwich wants to build his sputtering offense around an even more sputtering run game, and though Rachaad White has been a decent placeholder, let’s give Leftwich a guy in Robinson who has proven to be an outstanding power runner (104 missed tackles forced and 1,071 yards after contact this season) with great breakaway potential (21 runs of 15+ yards), and the potential to win as a receiver (19 catches for 314 yards and two touchdowns). That might give Brady some incentive to come back to a far more fully-formed offense. Robinson is also the most offensive line-proof back in this class, which will be necessary for this front five.
Per @PFF, Bijan Robinson has forced 104 (!!!) missed tackles this season.
Here are several of them! pic.twitter.com/W5vcwRV9Yi
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 14, 2022
20. Tennessee Titans: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Yes, the Titans already have two young cornerbacks with potential in Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary, but their cornerback group this season has allowed 13 touchdowns to three interceptions. And do we really need to get into what former Titans and current Eagles receiver A.J. Brown did to that group a couple weeks back? Ouch.
A.J. BROWN. 41-yard TD against his former team! @1kalwaysopen_
📺: #TENvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/3GGO7Ve30A pic.twitter.com/H2xLp1MbrX— NFL (@NFL) December 4, 2022
What the Titans really need at the position is a technical bully, and no cornerback in this class fits that description better than Porter. He’s an absolute eraser in aggressive press coverage, he’s getting his off-zone skills together, and when he’s on point, he has the ability to make some very good receivers go away in a big hurry.
21. New England Patriots: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
As is the case with the Bears, the Patriots need to fix their receiver corps and offensive line to give their limited quarterback the best chance to succeed. And like the Bears, the Patriots might still be better off going with the best defensive player available in the first round. That would be Simpson here, and if you think he’s just an off-ball linebacker, think again. Yes, he can play those roles very well — both against the run and in coverage — but he can also win off the edge, in the slot, and occasionally all the way out to cornerback. Not bad for a 6=foot-3, 230-pound freak athlete, and I’m rooting for this pick just to see what Bill Belichick would do with him on the field.
Trenton Simpson: Not just an off-ball linebacker. pic.twitter.com/5vLOkHSBOU
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 14, 2022
22. Washington Commanders: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
This is not the pick I would make. Based on my film review, I think Levis should be about a mid- to low second-round pick. There are too many issues with his accuracy, consistency, and coverage recognition to make him a top prospect as a first-round quarterback, and while he can mitigate it to a point with his athleticism, I don’t think he’s electric enough to make up for it. That said, Levis has the “big guy/big arm/gritty/winner” thing going for him, and if as many people in the NFL are comparing him to Young Josh Allen as seems to be the case, some team is going to shoot its shot on his potential. The Commanders could be one of many teams in need of quarterback reinforcement to make that move.
23. New York Giants: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
We all know that the Giants need receivers. But did you also know that the Giants need cornerbacks? Because they most definitely do. Big Blue’s cornerbacks this season have allowed 10 touchdowns to two interceptions, and as much as defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves to blitz, you’re going to need cornerbacks who can exert dominance against enemy receivers without a lot of help. Smith, who has allowed 18 catches on 38 targets for 211 yards, 81 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, one interception, six pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 71.3, has all the attributes required to get that defense in better shape.
24. Denver Broncos (from Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers): Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
When healthy, the Broncos are pretty loaded for a team standing at 3-10. The run game is great with Javonte Williams, when Williams isn’t out for the season. The receivers are good-to-great. The offensive line is decent with some need for reinforcement, and the defense is off the hook. There’s the whole “Highly expensive quarterback who has inexplicably fallen off a cliff” issue to deal with, but the Broncos aren’t going to try to fix that in the draft. So. maybe let’s give a little help to a run defense that’s about middle of the pack with a special player in Bresee, who can deal with running backs and bring pressure inside. Maybe the play is an edge-rusher here if one really pops out, but if it’s about BPA, I think Bresee is the guy here.
25. Baltimore Ravens: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Yes, the Ravens took Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton in the first round of the 2022 draft, but there’s nothing wrong with double-dipping, especially since new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has said that he wants his safety group to be the foundation of his defense. As the Ravens currently have allowed a 91.9 opposing quarterback rating among their safeties, perhaps more is needed — though free-agent signing Marcus Williams has been top-notch when healthy. Branch is an great run defender, he can stop routes over the middle, and he’s capable of holding up in the deep third when necessary. If safety is still the key position in Macdonald’s playbook in 2023 and beyond, Branch would be an outstanding addition.
26. Cincinnati Bengals: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The offseason additions of Alex Cappa, La’el Collins, and Ted Karras showed how serious the Bengals were about overhauling an offense line that nearly got Joe Burrow killed in 2022. It’s worked to better and better effect. There is still, however, the matter of left tackle Jonah Williams and his nine sacks and 36 total pressures allowed. Williams hasn’t allowed a sack in any of Cincinnati’s last four games, so maybe the Bengals go a different way here. But 2023 also marks the last season of Williams’ rookie contract, so perhaps it’s time to think about new blood. Jones is known to be a powerful run-blocker, but as he’s proven in 2022 with no sacks and nine total pressures allowed in 399 passing snaps, he’s just fine there, too. He’d be an ideal fit for a Bengals offense that’s best when it’s balanced.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Dan Quinn’s defense is currently the class of the NFL — the Cowboys rank first in Defensive DVOA, first against the pass, and sixth against the run. This doesn’t mean that Dallas isn’t vulnerable at the cornerback position beyond Trevon Diggs, because they are. Gonzalez, the Colorado transfer who has lit it up with the Ducks in 2022 to the tune of 39 catches allowed on 64 targets for 495 yards, 209 air yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 74.7, is exactly the kind of opportunistic defender Quinn can mold into something even more special at the NFL level.
28. Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Death, taxes, and the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. Some things are inevitable. What the Chiefs have not been able to count on this season is reliable play from either of their offensive tackles (left tackle Orlando Brown and right tackle Andrew Wylie). Brown has been specifically vulnerable to speed rushers on the back half of the arc, and he’s playing on the franchise tag this season. Harrison has fallen a bit under the radar this season when we’re talking about the best tackles, but I love his tape, and I think he’d be an ideal blindside protector for one Patrick Mahomes.
When it comes to offensive tackle with first-round talent, I think we should be talking more about Oklahoma's Anton Harrison (No. 71). pic.twitter.com/8myzt5drXO
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 14, 2022
29. Minnesota Vikings: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
Few teams have positional needs like the Vikings need cornerbacks. Patrick Peterson has been a revelation at age 32, but that speaks for itself. Neither Cameron Dantzler nor Chandon Sullivan have done a lot to impress, and as this defense is on a streak of five straight games allowing more than 400 yards to their opponents (a franchise record, and the Vikings have been around since 1961), the desperation for addition here is obvious. Utah has a pretty decent history of preparing defensive backs for the NFL, and Phillips is next in line. This season, he’s allowed 41 catches on 66 targets for 511 yards, 286 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, six interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 68.4. Those are the stats; the tape shows a player as expert at closing to his receiver as anybody in this class.
30. Buffalo Bills: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
If the Bills are going to sacrifice the more explosive and hard-to-cover elements of their passing game at the altar of the desire to build a run game — and sure, why not — let’s at least give offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey a bit more to work with. No offense to Nyheim Hines, Devin Singletary, and James Cook, but if we want to be balanced here, let’s get balanced with the kind of back who can really make that happen. Gibbs isn’t the biggest back at 5-foot-11 and 200 pounds, but he runs bigger than he is — he’s forced 35 missed tackles on 136 attempts — and his 14 carries of 15+ yards prove a breakaway ability that would make him an ideal new buddy for Josh Allen.
31. Philadelphia Eagles: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
There are at least four things you can’t have enough of in the NFL: Positional depth, draft picks, cornerbacks, and edge rushers. The Eagles already have all four of those things, and as Brandon Graham just won NFC Defensive Player of the Week, maybe it’s too much of an embarrassment of riches for Howie Roseman to go out and get another edge guy?
If we know anything about Howie, though, too much is never enough. Adding Foskey, who has 12 sacks, 26 stops, and 33 total pressures, to an edge group that’s already formidable, seems almost illegal. But this is what can happen when you build your team the right way — you can stack the blocks all the way up to the sky.
