The Latest Breaking News from Spy

Investors were once again foolishly bidding up stocks coming into the inflation report Tuesday morning. Bulls were slaughtered when they found out that inflation is not fading away and that likely spells more economic pain on the way as the Fed will need to stay on the rate hike war…

It’s easy to appreciate the confusion for investors at this time. Just when you think the bears are back in charge...next comes a big 3 day rally that calls it all into question. But why did stocks rally? And why do most signs still point bearish? And why does Steve…

The market continues to confound and confuse both bulls and bears alike...The hope that a new bull market began in mid-June has been extinguished by the S&P 500 (SPY) declining from 4,300 to 3,900. While the bears continue to be stymied by an economy that continues to be more resilient…

How do you feel about the stock market (SPY) when I tell you that 45% of economists see a recession forming in the next 12 months? And now how does your outlook change when I tell you that the average recession and bear market has formed when only 40% of…

Since testing the 200-day moving average in mid-August, the S&P 500 (SPY) has been in liquidation mode. More importantly, we have retraced more than 50% of the advance that began in mid-June. Is this just a pullback? Or, are we back in bear market mode? This question will be the…

The recent 18% rally for the S&P 500 (SPY) was a flight of fancy. Fed Chairman Powell made sure that message was heard loud and clear from the mountain tops in Jackson Hole. This sets up for an interesting fork in the road where dropping back down the June lows…

Is this the end of the bear-market rally or just a correction amid a new uptrend?

Every article I saw today on Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole focused on the idea that raising rates will cause “pain” to the economy. This sparked a nasty -3.37% scalping of the S&P 500 (SPY) and having investors pondering if we are about to revisit the June lows.…

Usually, Thursdays are a great day for commentaries, because Fridays tend to be low-volatility and volume days. Occasionally, this isn’t the case like today for instance. Tomorrow, there is the inflation report and Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Both of these are going to be major factors in determining…

Survey investors in June and no doubt the bears are in charge. Then we go on a 2 month rally with 18% upside for the S&P 500 (SPY) and the bulls seem to be King of the Hill. Now we have backslid a bit over the past week. And the…

The S&P 500 (SPY) hit its first rough patch since mid-July. And, we've basically retraced the entire last leg higher. As we laid out in our previous commentaries, the conditions that contributed to the melt-up (bearish sentiment and positioning) remain intact albeit to a lesser degree. Similarly, the factors that…