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The Latest Breaking News from Resolve

How did the polls perform in the 2022 election? Better, but not great; also a Senate update

At the May 21 federal election, Labor won 77 of the 151 House of Representatives seats (up eight since 2019 when adjusted for redistributions), the Coalition won 58 seats (down 18), the Greens four (up three) and all Others 12 (up seven).

The Conversation

Newspoll and Ipsos both give Labor clear leads in final polls; counting of early votes

The federal election is on Saturday. Polls close at 6pm local time; that means 6pm AEST in the eastern states, 6:30pm in SA and the NT and 8pm in WA. 124 of the 151 House of Representatives seats are in the eastern time zone, 12 combined in SA and the…

The Conversation

Undecided voters, independents and marginal seats mean pollsters can still get election outcome wrong

The more independents and minor parties that end up in contention for lower house seats, the less useful traditional polling will be at predicting winners, writes Casey Briggs.

ABC News

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Morrison is hoping for an election surprise but 'uncommitted' voters rarely turn things around in the final week

The number of voters the Coalition is attempting to sway in the final days of the campaign varies widely, depending on how the targeted voters are defined. But the historical precedent for success to which commentators refer isn’t persuasive.

The Conversation

Labor's lead narrows in three new national polls; and seat polls galore

The final Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted May 12-17 from a sample of 2,049, gave Labor just a 52-48 lead by 2019 election preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight’s Resolve. By respondent preferences, Labor’s lead was narrower at 51-49, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

The Conversation

Labor's lead steady in Newspoll and gains in Resolve; how the polls moved during past campaigns

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 27-30 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (up two), 4% UAP (steady) and 6% for all Others (down three).

The Conversation

View from The Hill: Labor strongly ahead in Newspoll and Resolve, as election race enters final half

Labor’s confidence will be boosted by two polls showing it holding a strong lead, as Anthony Albanese carried off a well-orchestrated party launch in Perth on Sunday.

The Conversation

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Labor retains clear Newspoll lead and large Ipsos lead as record number of candidates nominate

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (up one), 11% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (steady), 3% One Nation (down one) and 9% for all Others (steady).

The Conversation

Labor still has clear lead in Newspoll and Resolve, but Albanese’s ratings slump

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 14-17 from a sample of 1,510, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 36% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (up two), 4% One Nation (up one), 4% UAP (steady) and 9% for all Others (down one).

The Conversation

Labor trending down in Newspoll before Albanese's stumble

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 6-9 from a sample of 1,506, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (steady), 10% Greens (steady), 4% UAP (up one), 3% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all…

The Conversation

As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called the federal election for May 21. What do the polls say, and how do we know if they are accurate?

The Conversation

Morrison and Albanese are facing off in the election. This is what the polls have to say — and what to look for next

There is one thing more certain than pollies kissing babies on the campaign trail: You're going to see a lot of opinion polling. We are making reading them easier for you.

ABC News

Gains for Labor in three post-budget polls, as budget has weak response compared with historical record

The polls presented here are in addition to Monday’s Newspoll (54-46 to Labor) and Ipsos (55-45 to Labor), which I covered here.

The Conversation

With election 2022 nearly upon us, can we actually trust the opinion polls this time?

There's been a lot of soul-searching after opinion polls failed to predict Scott Morrison's 2019 win, but the big question remains: Will the polls be closer to the mark this time around?

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The Conversation

Coalition and Greens gain in post-budget Newspoll as an Ipsos poll gives Labor a large lead

This week’s Newspoll, conducted March 31 to April 3 – the days following the March 29 budget –from a sample of 1,531, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago.

The Conversation

Labor maintains big federal Newspoll lead and is likely to win in South Australia

This week’s Newspoll gives Labor a 55-45 lead over the Coalition, which is unchanged since the previous poll a fortnight ago.

The Conversation

Morrison's ratings slump in Resolve and Essential polls; Liberals set to retain Willoughby

A Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 15-20 from a sample of 1,604, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since January), the Coalition 33% (down one), the Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 3% (steady), independents 10% (down one) and others 9% (up three).

The Conversation

Confused polling distorts the debate on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament

Would Australians vote for an Indigenous Voice in the Constitution? Would they approve the parliament simply legislating a Voice? Australians may support one, both, or neither.

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The Conversation

Newspoll has Labor's biggest lead since Turnbull's ousting as Coalition damaged by COVID

In the first Newspoll of 2022, Labor led by 56-44, a three-point gain since the previous Newspoll in early December. Primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 34% Coalition (down two), 11% Greens (up one), 3% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (down two).

The Conversation

Coalition slumps in first poll of 2022 as voters lose confidence in Morrison's handling of pandemic

In the first national poll of the new year, a Resolve survey for the Nine newspapers, Labor had 35% of the primary vote (up three percentage points since November), the Coalition 34% (down five), the Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 3% (steady) and independents 11% (up two).

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