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The Latest Breaking News from Kalshi

At the Races: Never-ending redistricting

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Redistricting has already thrown a long shadow over the 2026 midterm elections, and we’re not done yet. As our colleague…

Roll Call

Politician defends betting on own election after Kalshi prediction market suspension

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Prediction market Kalshi suspends three political candidates for betting on their own races

Kalshi’s enforcement and legal counsel said two of the financial penalties were settlements, while one was disciplinary action

The Independent UK

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Prediction site Kalshi fines three US candidates who bet on own elections

Disclosures come after firm tightened rules on insider trading, including candidates betting on own campaigns

The Guardian - US

Texas Republican candidate suspended by Kalshi for betting on his own election

Zeke Enriquez, who ran in the GOP primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District, was fined and barred from the prediction market platform for five years. Two candidates in other states were suspended for the same offense.

The Texas Tribune

Investors are valuing Polymarket at a discount to archrival Kalshi—and its crypto ties could be one reason why

Polymarket is fundraising at a reported $15 billion valuation, while Kalshi was last valued at $22 billion.

Fortune

Prediction Markets and Social Gaming Under Legal Spotlight

Prediction markets and social games are turning the world into a casino.

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John Oliver on prediction markets: ‘Betting on war is really dark’

The Last Week Tonight host dug into the rapidly expanding, poorly regulated free-for-all of ‘prediction markets’ like Kalshi and Polymarket

The Guardian - US

The crypto industry and prediction markets share a mission of disruption—but it’s not clear where crypto fits in

Big crypto players Coinbase and Robinhood view platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as allies and rivals.

Fortune

Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling toward the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake

Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction markets industry, expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.

Fortune

Trump Impeachment Odds Hit 72% Record High as Fears of Third Impeachment Grow

Prediction markets show a 72% chance of Trump facing a third impeachment, driven by legal scrutiny and political tensions.

International Business Times UK

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

The Guardian - US

‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

The Guardian - UK

Prediction markets have made betting easier than ever—and young men are paying the price

“I think about that money I lost every single day,” says Samuel Sharkey, a 23-year-old who lost about $10,000 on Kalshi.

Fortune

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The Independent UK

White House warns staffers not to place bets on prediction markets amid the Iran war: report

Three new Polymarket accounts raked in over half a million dollars after accurately predicting the Iran War ceasefire

The Independent UK

Prediction markets are back the spotlight, this time because of the war in Iran

Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, even the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran

International Business Times UK

Betting Against George RR Martin: Why Prediction Markets Give The Winds of Winter a Staggering 83% Chance of Failure

Prediction markets on US exchange Kalshi now assign only a slim chance that George RR Martin will announce a release date for The Winds of Winter by the end of 2026.

Axios

WATCH: Kalshi founders talk insider trading, gambling, Don Jr. on "The Axios Show"

Kalshi has become very big business.

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The Mary Sue

Iraq vet lashes out at Polymarket for ‘disgusting’ bets on airmen’s lives in the Iran war

Online betting platform Polymarket has finally stopped accepting wagers on when U.S. warplane crew members, shot down in Iran, might be rescued, promising an investigation into how such a market ever appeared. According to The Guardian, this move comes after significant criticism, particularly from a federal lawmaker who called the…

Fortune

Polymarket apologizes after letting users bet on downed U.S. pilots in Iran: 'It should not have been posted'

Prediction market bets on outcomes of the war in Iran have sparked ethical concerns. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said similar markets create “more money, more problems.”

International Business Times UK

Is Trump Being Forced Out Under The 25th Amendment? Calls To Oust The President Rise Amid Intensifying Scrutiny

Donald Trump's Easter Sunday post targeting Iran has led to increased calls for the 25th Amendment, reflecting a growing political crisis.

The Independent UK

Prediction markets challenge tribal casinos’ hard-won place in US gambling

At the Indian Gaming Association’s annual convention in San Diego this week, two words have dominated the agenda: Prediction markets

The Guardian - US

US government sues Illinois, alleging unlawful efforts to regulate prediction markets

Booming prediction market sites, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, face scrutiny from states and Congress

Fortune

Prediction markets caught insider traders in real time. Congress wants to shut them down anyway

Blockchain-based platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are doing what Wall Street regulators never could—leaving a public, immutable trail of suspicious trades.

Fortune

Prediction markets have sparked a golden age of insider trading—but the party may be coming to an end

Suspicious wagers on everything from U.S. military actions to MrBeast episodes have finally roused officials to take action.

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