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The Latest Breaking News from ISW

Reports of 4 Russian military aircraft downed near Ukraine border

Russian ‘raiding party’ consisting of Su-34 fighter-bomber, Su-35 fighter, and two Mi-8 helicopters reported shot down.

Al Jazeera

False flag or genuine attack? What we know about the Kremlin drone incident

Ukraine has denied Russian claims it tried to kill Vladimir Putin, and some experts have said it could have been a Russian stunt

The Guardian - UK

Russia’s Wagner mercenary force boss threatens Bakhmut withdrawal

Yevgeny Prigozhin says casualties in Bakhmut would be ‘five times fewer if we had more ammunition’.

Al Jazeera

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Ukraine gains an edge in Kherson as counteroffensive nears

Reports suggest Ukrainian forces may have started securing a foothold among weak Russian defences in southern Ukraine.

Al Jazeera

Russian forces ‘forcibly evacuating’ civilians in Kherson, says Ukraine

Apparent move in occupied areas comes as Ukrainian military sets up positions on eastern side of Dnipro River

The Guardian - UK

Russian shelling as Ukraine forces reportedly cross Dnieper River

Russian-installed official denies reports that Kyiv’s forces have taken up positions on river’s east bank.

Al Jazeera

Analysts say Kyiv may be launching long-awaited counteroffensive as Ukraine war spurs record global spending on military

A new analysis gives rise to speculation that Kyiv is beginning a long-awaited counteroffensive, as new data shows global military expenditure increased by a record 3.7 per cent last year.

ABC News

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New Ukraine positions near Kherson could signal spring offensive – report

Thinktank says infiltration into area east of Dnipro River could be first step toward trying to dislodge Russian forces

The Guardian - UK

Report: Ukrainian forces across key river, raising hopes

A Washington-based think tank says that Ukrainian forces have successfully crossed the wide Dnieper river in the country's south to establish and maintain positions on its east bank

The Independent UK

Kremlin’s foreign minister to meet UN secretary general; US considering ban on exports to Russia – as it happened

Sergei Lavrov to meet António Guterres on Monday; US to discuss export ban at G7 leaders’ summit

The Guardian - AU

Russia redeploying ‘heavy flamethrower’ thermobaric weapons to elite frontline troops in Ukraine

Thermobaric weapons are considered to be one of the most brutal war weapons in existence

The Independent UK

Ukraine war passes 400 days as Russia suffers major losses in Bakhmut

‘Four hundred days... Four hundred days of our defence against full-scale aggression’

The Independent UK

Putin using Bakhmut to destroy Wagner Group and ‘put its chief in his place’, says ISW

Analyst says Ukraine battle – in which the Russian side has suffered heavy casualties – is part of a wider Kremlin power play

The Independent UK

Ukraine forces can ‘break through’ Russian defences in counter-attacks, say military experts

Ukrainian forces can break through Russian defences in counter-offensives in coming months, military experts said on Monday.

Evening Standard

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The Guardian - AU

Russia-Ukraine war: Putin’s plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus ‘irresponsible’ and ‘escalatory’, says Germany

Berlin says Moscow’s announcement is ‘another attempt at nuclear intimidation’

Al Jazeera

Wagner advance in Bakhmut as Russian offensive appears to weaken

Russian mercenaries were the only element of Moscow’s forces making any progress in the 55th week of the war in Ukraine.

The Guardian - AU

Russia-Ukraine war: Xi to visit Russia as early as next week; Moscow says it could agree to shorter Black Sea grain deal – as it happened

China’s president planning to visit Moscow soon and also speak to Zelenskiy; hopes for possible grain deal extension but Russia wants 60-day limit

Daily Mirror

Russia turns to cruel flesh-melting weapon as thermite bombs rain down in Ukraine town

Thermite munitions - which have been used previously during the war in Ukraine - are particularly deadly because they burn rather than explode, reaching temperatures exceeding 2,400C that can easily sear through steel

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The Independent UK

Russian advance stalls in Ukraine's Bakhmut, think tank says

A leading think tank says Russia’s advance seems to have stalled in Moscow’s campaign to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut

The Guardian - AU

Wagner head says Russian forces facing ammunition shortages – as it happened

Yevgeny Prigozhin thanks Kremlin for ‘heroic’ production increase but says concerns about shortages remain. This blog is now closed

The Independent UK

Russia steps up effort to take elusive prize of Ukraine city

The fate of Bakhmut appears to be hanging in the balance as Russian forces continue to encroach on the devastated eastern Ukrainian city

Bangkok Post

Kyiv says Russia pursuing 'attempts to encircle' Bakhmut

KYIV, Ukraine: Kyiv said Sunday it was holding off attacks from Russian troops still attempting to surround Bakhmut, a now-destroyed eastern Ukrainian city that Moscow has been trying to capture for months.

The Guardian - UK

A year of war: how Russian forces have been pushed back in Ukraine

Guardian analysis shows how Russia has lost a fifth of the land it once controlled in Ukraine after its invasion

ABC News

Vladimir Putin's snub casts doubt on Yevgeny Prigozhin's ploy to use his Wagner Group to shore-up power

"Putin's chef" is known for cooking his way into the Russian president's inner circle, but a very public snub has experts suspecting the relationship may have come undone.

The Conversation

Ukraine recap: Kyiv keeps its friends close, but will they send the latest warplanes?

The latest dispatches from the Institute for the Study of War make for sobering reading. After a few months in which the initiative on the battlefield was generally considered to be firmly with Ukraine, the pendulum appears as if it could be swinging gradually back Russia’s way.

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