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The Latest Breaking News from George Saravelos

The Treasury's recent moves in the bond and currency markets add up to 'soft-form financial repression' to lower debt costs, economist warns

“If the market price of USTs is not ‘allowed‘ to adjust down, the foreign exchange price of UST owned by foreign investors has to adjust via a weakening in the dollar.”

Fortune

US Treasury bond buybacks spark fresh fears over dollar weakness

The US Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme has raised concerns that efforts to contain long-term borrowing costs could pressure the dollar. Rising yields, fiscal deficits and heavy debt issuance are intensifying market scrutiny. While some investors see echoes of earlier interventions, others view the move as limited. The policy’s longer-term currency…

The Economic Times

7 ways Europe could hurt the U.S. if Trump doesn’t back down over Greenland

A comprehensive package of economic sanctions against the U.S. would increase price inflation in America.

Fortune

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Europe's Biggest Advantage in the Showdown Over Greenland? America's Huge Pile of Debt.

America's large and growing national debt is not just a budgetary liability, but increasingly a geopolitical one too.

Reason

Selling America is a ‘dangerous bet,’ UBS CEO warns as markets panic

Gold is surging, and the dollar is sliding—but UBS’s CEO says the real risk is betting against the U.S.

Fortune

Bessent urges Europe not to retaliate against Trump’s Greenland tariffs

US treasury secretary says at WEF in Davos that countries and companies should pause and ‘let things play out’

The Guardian - UK

Markets stay calm amid Trump’s gambit, but long-term risks are huge

Traders have learned to live with the US president’s rhetoric, but the EU’s measures could go beyond tariffs and into capital markets

The Guardian - UK

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Europe can wield this $8 trillion 'sell America' weapon as Trump reignites a trade war over his Greenland conquest ambitions

"Europe owns Greenland, it also owns a lot of Treasuries."

Fortune

Nonprofit turned investment magnet OpenAI is now valued at $500 billion

But is AI a bubble that's about to burst?

PC Gamer

The AI boom is unsustainable unless tech spending goes ‘parabolic,’ Deutsche Bank warns: ‘This is highly unlikely’

“In the absence of tech-related spending, the U.S. would be close to, or in, recession this year,” George Saravelos says.

Fortune

GM’s $1.1 billion tariff hit bolsters mounting evidence that Americans are the ones footing the bill for Trump’s import taxes

“The top-down macroevidence seems clear: Americans are mostly paying for the tariffs,” a Deutsche Bank analyst said in a note published Tuesday.

Fortune

Trump's Ouster Of Fed Chair Powell Could Trigger 'Collapse' Of Currency And Bond Market, Deutsche Bank Warns

Deutsche Bank has issued a warning about the potential consequences of President Donald Trump replacing Jerome Powell as the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Benzinga

If Trump fires the Fed’s Powell ‘both the currency and the bond market can collapse,’ according to Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank's explosive scenario in a note titled, “What if ?”

Fortune

Energy markets are poised to be the next battlefield in the spiraling Israel-Iran conflict

An Iranian lawmaker said closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint in the global energy trade, was under serious consideration.

Fortune

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Fortune

Vanishing immigration is the ‘real story’ for the economy and a bigger supply shock than tariffs, analyst says

A workforce that is growing more slowly doesn’t need as much hiring to absorb the additional labor supply.

Fortune

The 'revenge tax' buried deep in the budget bill could turn a trade war into a 'capital war,' analyst says

Section 899 of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" moving through Congress has raised growing alarms on Wall Street.

Fortune

There's a 'buyer's strike' on U.S. assets as foreign investors can't stomach huge deficits anymore, analyst warns

"At the core of the problem is that foreign investors are simply no longer willing to finance US twin deficits at current level of prices."

Fortune

Trump can pull stocks back from the brink, but bond and currency markets may not be so easily impressed as they rapidly de-dollarize

"The fact that the dollar is going down at the same time, I think, lends some more credibility to the story of investor preferences shifting."

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news in one place.

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Fortune

The U.S. dollar is losing its status as a safe haven. What does that mean for investors?

The dollar is taking a beating as Trump’s tariff policies cause widespread uncertainty, threatening its status as the world’s reserve currency.

International Business Times

Trump's Trade Whiplash Sends Dollar Into Tailspin

The mighty dollar is sliding sharply as President Donald Trump's turbulent trade agenda has battered US credibility in global markets and fanned fears of a self-inflicted economic downturn.

The Independent UK

UK 30-year gilt yields reach highest point since 1998 amid Trump tariff fallout

The US president’s trade policies caused turbulence on financial markets this week, but a bond market sell-off has sparked fresh concerns.

The Guardian - UK

Possible Europe-US trade war could push euro into parity with the dollar

If Donald Trump imposes tariffs on EU imports the eurozone is likely to take a hit, causing euro to slide further

The Guardian - UK

FTSE 100 marks best day of 2023 as US inflation falls to 3%

‘Not too early to start chilling the champagne,’ says one analyst as traders toast drop in consumer inflation

The Guardian - UK

Cliff edge looms for UK’s financial system

BoE’s move to end bond buying is a big gamble given the magnitude of the bind Britain is in

The National (Scotland)

UK pound records biggest monthly decline since 2016 as economic uncertainty grows

STERLING has recorded its biggest monthly decline against the dollar since the wake of the Brexit referendum in 2016.

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