Zero net migration would shrink UK economy by 3.6%, says thinktank

Stagnating population growth would lead to fewer tax revenues and cause the government to borrow more, according to the thinktank. Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Live News.

The UK economy would be 3.6% smaller by 2040 if net migration fell to zero, forcing the government to raise taxes to combat a much bigger budget deficit, a thinktank has predicted.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said falling birthrates in the UK and a sharp decrease in net migration last year had led it to consider what would happen if this trend continued to the end of the decade.