Volodymyr Zelensky’s suggestion that Ukraine could temporarily cede territory to Russia in exchange for joining Nato would mark a “major concession” to Vladimir Putin, the UK’s former ambassador to Russia has said.
In a significant development on the route to a potential ceasefire after 33 months of conflict, the Ukrainian president indicated for the first time that Kyiv could accept Russian control over some of its territory in order to end the “hot phase of the war”.
With Moscow appearing to ramp up its push for territory in Ukraine’s east ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, Mr Zelensky told Sky News that peace could be struck if territory he controls is taken “under the Nato umbrella”, allowing him to negotiate the return of the rest later “in a diplomatic way”.
Praising Mr Zelensky for “playing a very sophisticated game”, Sir Tony Brenton – who served as ambassador to Russia between 2004 and 2008 – told the broadcaster: “He knows that Trump is about to descend on him and on Russia. He is already arranging to have something to offer Trump.
“What he is suggesting in many ways is bringing us much closer to the obvious target area, which is a freeze in the fighting where the lines actually currently are, and then an eventual negotiation about who retains which bit of territory, and then security guarantees for Ukraine in the course of that ceasefire.”
Warning that Nato membership for Ukraine is “frankly going to be very, very difficult”, Sir Tony said that Mr Zelensky’s statement that he is prepared to see a ceasefire and then negotiate the return of Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine over the longer term would be viewed by Mr Putin as a concession.
“That is actually quite a major concession, because the longer term could be a very long time indeed,” he said, adding: “[Putin] will say to himself, ‘Ah, they are feeling weak, I can press for more.’ That is a danger if we go into this.”
The Russian president is currently “keeping his cards very close to his chest” in terms of his views on how to end the conflict, which he believes he is winning, said Sir Tony. Moscow’s troops have been making steady gains in Ukraine’s east – but at a cost of incurring potentially record casualties.
Concurring with this view, James Nixey, of the Chatham House think tank, warned that any part of Ukraine being in Nato would be unacceptable to Mr Putin.
“After all, it is, for him, an abhorrence. Putin doesn’t want a pause anyway – he believes he’s on the brink of an historic and strategic victory, kindly deal-sealed by Donald Trump,” Mr Nixey told The Independent.
But if such a deal were to be struck, both Kyiv and its allies would be able to present it as a victory in securing “a free democratic Ukraine linked to the West”, Sir Tony said.
In further remarks to Sky News, the UK’s former representative to Nato, Sir Adam Thomson, said Mr Zelensky appeared to be preparing domestic audiences for compromises, while “making opening moves” in a likely extended negotiation with Mr Trump over which line to take with the Kremlin.
“He’s moving Ukraine to a much more realistic position – still not necessarily an achievable one, but more realistic,” said Sir Adam, adding that around three-quarters of Nato’s members believe membership for Kyiv “would be the least bad outcome, in the sense of being the least expensive and the most stable”.
Were such a deal to be struck, it would require Nato troops – including from Britain – to defend Ukraine’s borders, including its northern border with Belarus, said Mr Nixey, adding: “Whether Nato is fully prepared for this eventuality is open to question.”
Throughout the conflict, Mr Zelensky has never said he would cede any occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which Russia occupied in February 2014. In September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared its annexation of four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia – despite not controlling all of those territories.
Yet war analysts say Russia has been gaining territory in recent weeks on Ukraine’s eastern front at the fastest pace since the early days of the war, as both Moscow and Kyiv look ahead to Mr Trump’s return in January. The US president-elect has claimed he could end the war “in a day”.
Historian Dr Mark Galeotti, author of Forged in War: A Military History of Russia, said Mr Zelensky’s comments in part likely reflect “the unfolding political and military realities, as the Russians continue to advance and Donald Trump's shadow looms over everything”.
“But I think it may also be Zelensky's attempt to, in effect, call the West’s bluff,” Dr Galeotti told The Independent. “Actually getting all Nato’s 32 members to agree to a quick membership would be very difficult, but in effect he is asking, ‘If not the Article 5 security guarantee, what else could be offered?’”
Mr Zelensky’s ex-foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said earlier this week it was inconceivable that he could sign a deal surrendering territory, telling Politico: “The Russians keep the Donbas, they keep Crimea, no Nato membership. Can Zelensky sign? He cannot because of the constitution. And because it will be the end of Zelensky politically.”
Last month, Mr Zelensky unveiled his “victory plan”, which calls for Ukraine’s unconditional accession to Nato, a refusal to trade Ukraine’s territories currently occupied by Russian forces, and the continuation of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
